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Partisan Abortions

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We study the effect of unexpected changes in the party in government on fertility outcomes, using administrative data on births and abortions for Spain. Following a difference-in-differences strategy, we find that, after an unanticipated loss by the party in power in 2004, municipalities with strong support for this party experienced a sharp increase in abortions (of about 0.10 pregnancy interruptions per 1,000 women in the month following the election), as well as a decrease in pregnancies leading to live birth (of about 0.28 conceptions per 1,000 women, for an average monthly birth rate of 3.9). We show that the surprise election results also had an immediate effect on citizens' economic expectations along partisan lines, a plausible channel for the impact on fertility decisions.

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  • Libertad González Luna & Luis Guirola & Blanca Zapater, 2023. "Partisan Abortions," Economics Working Papers 1859, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    • Handle: RePEc:upf:upfgen:1859
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    Keywords

    Fertility; economic expectations; abortion; partisanship;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior

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