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Revisiting Indonesia’s Sources of Economic Growth and Its Projection Towards 2030

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  • Armida Alisjahbana

    ()
    (Department of Economics, Padjadjaran University)

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    Abstract

    This paper revisits Indonesia’s sources of economic growth using the Growth Accounting Framework with education adjusted employment for period 1971-2007. The study estimates contribution of growth in capital stock, human capital and Total Factor Productivity (TFP) during the period before and after the crisis. TFP played positive but minor role in Indonesia’s economic growth before the crisis. Growth in capital stock had been the main driver, attributing between 50-70% of growth. Growth in human capital accounted for another 30%. The pattern of sources of growth has changed substantially post crisis. TFP growth has played a more significant role, whereas capital stock growth has been increasing but at a meager pace. Human capital has consistently contributed about 30% to the overall growth. The roles of capital stock growth, human capital growth and TFP have been on a more equal footing after post-crisis. If this trend persists, it will have profound implication on the driver of Indonesian economy’s growth in the future and its trajectory projection towards 2030.

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    File URL: http://lp3e.fe.unpad.ac.id/wopeds/200905.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2009
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Department of Economics, Padjadjaran University in its series Working Papers in Economics and Development Studies (WoPEDS) with number 200905.

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    Length: 21 pages
    Date of creation: Jul 2009
    Date of revision: Jul 2009
    Handle: RePEc:unp:wpaper:200905

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    Keywords: Economic growth; Total Factor Productivity; Indonesia 2030;

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    1. Hill,Hal, 2000. "The Indonesian Economy," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521663670, April.
    2. Pierre van der Eng, 2005. "Indonesia's new national accounts," Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(2), pages 243-252.
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