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Wild cards, weak signals and organizational improvisation

Author

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  • Sandro Mendonca
  • Miguel Pina e Cunha
  • Jari Kaivo-oja
  • Frank Ruff

Abstract

This paper addresses the need for reliable action guidelines that can be used by organisations in turbulent environments. Building on current conceptual and empirical research, we suggest an analytical approach for the management of surprising and potentially damaging events. In order to do so we use the wild card management system. Wild cards refer to sudden and unique incidents that can constitute turning points in the evolution of a certain trend or system. As the first of the two components of such a wild card system we advocate a weak signal methodology to take into account those wild cards that can be anticipated by scanning the decision environment. The second component, the nurture of improvisation capabilities, is designed to deal with ongoing crisis. This paper can be seen as part of a broader agenda on how to manage in conditions of continuous but unpredictable change.

Suggested Citation

  • Sandro Mendonca & Miguel Pina e Cunha & Jari Kaivo-oja & Frank Ruff, 2003. "Wild cards, weak signals and organizational improvisation," Nova SBE Working Paper Series wp432, Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Nova School of Business and Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:unl:unlfep:wp432
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    2. Vollmar, Horst Christian & Goluchowicz, Kerstin & Beckert, Bernd & Dönitz, Ewa & Bartholomeyczik, Sabine & Ostermann, Thomas & Boustani, Malaz & Buscher, Ines, 2014. "Health care for people with dementia in 2030 – Results of a multidisciplinary scenario process," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 114(2), pages 254-262.
    3. Israel Griol-Barres & Sergio Milla & Antonio Cebrián & Huaan Fan & Jose Millet, 2020. "Detecting Weak Signals of the Future: A System Implementation Based on Text Mining and Natural Language Processing," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(19), pages 1-22, September.
    4. D. Thorleuchter & D. Van Den Poel, 2013. "Weak Signal Identification with Semantic Web Mining," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 13/860, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    5. Olli Hietanen & David Lefutso & Mario Marais et al. & Mphathi Nyewe & Thembinkosi Daniel Semwayo, 2011. "How to create national foresight culture and capacity: case study South Africa," EKONOMIAZ. Revista vasca de Economía, Gobierno Vasco / Eusko Jaurlaritza / Basque Government, vol. 76(01), pages 144-189.
    6. Epaminondas Christofilopoulos & Stavros Mantzanakis, 2016. "China-2025: Research and Innovation Landscape," Foresight and STI Governance (Foresight-Russia till No. 3/2015), National Research University Higher School of Economics, vol. 10(3), pages 7-16.
    7. Daria A. Pavlova & Yulia V. Milshina & Konstantin O. Vishnevskiy & Ozcan Saritas, 2018. "The Role Of Wild Cards Analysis In Foresight Studies: The Case Of Russia," HSE Working papers WP BRP 89/STI/2018, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    8. Zbyslaw Dobrowolski, 2020. "After COVID-19. Reorientation of crisis management in crisis," Entrepreneurship and Sustainability Issues, VsI Entrepreneurship and Sustainability Center, vol. 8(2), pages 799-810, December.
    9. Timofei Nestik, 2018. "The Psychological Aspects of Corporate Foresight," Foresight and STI Governance (Foresight-Russia till No. 3/2015), National Research University Higher School of Economics, vol. 12(2), pages 78-90.
    10. Zbyslaw Dobrowolski & Grzegorz Drozdowski & Monika Dobrowolska & Janusz Sobon & Dariusz Sobon, 2021. "Economic Calculus and Weak Signals: Prevention Against Foggy Bottom," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(2), pages 165-174.
    11. Djuricic, Ksenija & Bootz, Jean-Philippe, 2019. "Effectuation and foresight – An exploratory study of the implicit links between the two concepts," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 140(C), pages 115-128.
    12. Julia V. Ponomareva & Anna V. Sokolova, 2015. "The Identification of Weak Signals and Wild Cards in Foresight Methodology: Stages and Methods," HSE Working papers WP BRP 46/STI/2015, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    13. Sun Hi Yoo & DongKyu Won, 2018. "Simulation of Weak Signals of Nanotechnology Innovation in Complex System," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(2), pages 1-14, February.
    14. Tapio, Petri, 2005. "Towards a theory of decoupling: degrees of decoupling in the EU and the case of road traffic in Finland between 1970 and 2001," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 137-151, March.
    15. Ilya Kuzminov & Irina Loginova & Elena Khabirova, 2018. "Stress Scenario Development: Global Challenges For The Russian Agricultural Sector," HSE Working papers WP BRP 88/STI/2018, National Research University Higher School of Economics.

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