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The Identification of Weak Signals and Wild Cards in Foresight Methodology: Stages and Methods

Author

Listed:
  • Julia V. Ponomareva

    (National Research University Higher School of Economics)

  • Anna V. Sokolova

    (National Research University Higher School of Economics)

Abstract

This research explores the key stages and methods for the identification of weak signals (WS) and wild cards (WC) in foresight methodology. Theoretical approaches and practical projects in this field were studied, key characteristics and features of these concepts were identified. A review of potential data sources for the monitoring of WS and WC were also provided. The key groups of methods were formed including scanning and monitoring; data analysis; modelling, clustering, interpretation; expert procedures. The stages for identification of WS are proposed. A case study devoted to WS for the analysis of technology development of bioprinting is considered.

Suggested Citation

  • Julia V. Ponomareva & Anna V. Sokolova, 2015. "The Identification of Weak Signals and Wild Cards in Foresight Methodology: Stages and Methods," HSE Working papers WP BRP 46/STI/2015, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:hig:wpaper:46sti2015
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    File URL: http://www.hse.ru/data/2015/09/03/1089630981/46STI2015.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Markmann, Christoph & Darkow, Inga-Lena & von der Gracht, Heiko, 2013. "A Delphi-based risk analysis — Identifying and assessing future challenges for supply chain security in a multi-stakeholder environment," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 80(9), pages 1815-1833.
    3. Guillaume Delatour & Patrick Laclemence & Didier Calcei & Chabane Mazri, 2013. "Blind Managers, Systems Complexity and Weak Signals," Post-Print hal-02299245, HAL.
    4. Victor van Rij, 2012. "New Emerging Issues and Wild Cards as Future Shakers and Shapers," Foresight and STI Governance (Foresight-Russia till No. 3/2015), National Research University Higher School of Economics, vol. 6(1), pages 60-73.
    5. Halal, William E., 2013. "Forecasting the Technology Revolution: Results and learnings from the TechCast Project," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 80(8), pages 1635-1643.
    6. Effie Amanatidou & Maurits Butter & Vicente Carabias & Totti Könnölä & Miriam Leis & Ozcan Saritas & Petra Schaper-Rinkel & Victor van Rij, 2012. "On concepts and methods in horizon scanning: Lessons from initiating policy dialogues on emerging issues," Science and Public Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 39(2), pages 208-221, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Daria A. Pavlova & Yulia V. Milshina & Konstantin O. Vishnevskiy & Ozcan Saritas, 2018. "The Role Of Wild Cards Analysis In Foresight Studies: The Case Of Russia," HSE Working papers WP BRP 89/STI/2018, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    2. Zbyslaw Dobrowolski, 2020. "Forensic Auditing and Weak Signals: A Cognitive Approach and Practical Tips," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(Special 2), pages 247-259.
    3. Young-Joo Lee & Ji-Young Park, 2018. "Identification of future signal based on the quantitative and qualitative text mining: a case study on ethical issues in artificial intelligence," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 52(2), pages 653-667, March.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    weak signals; wild cards; bioprinting; foresight; scanning; analysis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O31 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Innovation and Invention: Processes and Incentives
    • O32 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Management of Technological Innovation and R&D
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes

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