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Future as Unexplored Domain: Ñonnecting Foresight to the Making Strategic Decisions

Author

Listed:
  • Gill Ringland

    (SAMI Consulting (UK))

Abstract

This paper is based on discussions in the framework of the World Future Studies Federation Conference held in Bucharest, Romania in June 2013. It suggests some reasons that decisions are often made with good backsight and less foresight. We consider the frameworks for organisational strategy adopted by many organisations, the roles of professionals in organisations. There are two distinct archetypes of people in terms of management style and approach to the professional duties — «foxes» and «hedgehogs». The «hedgehogs» make up the majority of employees. They prefer to follow the «proven» patterns enabling the operational activities of the organisation, but are weedy in adopting the changes. The «foxes» in their turn have a flexible mindset, they are suspicious of commitment to any single way of seeing an issue, and are relatively ready to recalibrate their view when unexpected events cast doubt on what they had previously believed to be true. Many futurists display «fox» -like characteristics. We describe the characteristics of an organisation able effectively to harness the potential of both archetypes and take foresight into its strategy. The paper thus puts forward a framework for connecting foresight to strategic decisions in organisations, using the example of the work being done with the European Commission’s EFFLA (European Forum on Forward Looking Activities). We propose a four-stage strategy cycle process for aligning to the EC’s research and innovation policy cycle. The first two stages, strategic intelligence (horizon scanning) and sense-making, require individual expert contributions and are in focus by EFFLA. In turn, selecting priorities and implementation are up to the policy- and decision-makers. We consider the suggested steps at each stage and the linkages between them. In particular this scheme should allow the EC flexibly to adjust the milestones of the Horizon 2020 framework programme and to outline its successor, Horizon II. Note: Downloadable document is in Russian.

Suggested Citation

  • Gill Ringland, 2013. "Future as Unexplored Domain: Ñonnecting Foresight to the Making Strategic Decisions," Foresight and STI Governance (Foresight-Russia till No. 3/2015), National Research University Higher School of Economics, vol. 7(4), pages 60-69.
  • Handle: RePEc:hig:fsight:v:7:y:2013:i:4:p:60-69
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    File URL: https://foresight-journal.hse.ru/data/2013/12/26/1341509231/2013-4-5-Ringland-60-69.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Effie Amanatidou & Maurits Butter & Vicente Carabias & Totti Könnölä & Miriam Leis & Ozcan Saritas & Petra Schaper-Rinkel & Victor van Rij, 2012. "On concepts and methods in horizon scanning: Lessons from initiating policy dialogues on emerging issues," Science and Public Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 39(2), pages 208-221, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Foresight; policy-making; decision-making; “foxes”; “hedgehogs”; futures studies; European Commission; horizon scanning; sense-making; priority setting; implementation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O20 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - General
    • O21 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - Planning Models; Planning Policy

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