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Demand and Technology Determinants of Structural Change and Tertiarisation: An Input-Output Structural Decomposition Analysis for four OECD Countries

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  • Maria Savona
  • André Lorentz

Abstract

The paper provides fresh empirical evidence on the relative role of changes in final and intermediate demand as affecting the changes in the sectoral structure of advanced economies. These latter have led, over the last three decades, to the massive growth of service sectors. The paper draws upon the recently released OECD Input- Output (I-O) tables. The empirical analysis is based on an I-O Structural Decomposition Analysis carried out on 13 manufacturing and service sectors, from the end of 1960s to the end of 1990s. Although heterogeneous sectoral patterns emerge, we find that the structural changes leading to the growth of services, particularly KIBS (Knowledge Intensive Business Services), are mainly (domestic) demand-led, whereas the role of foreign trade remains marginal even in the last decade. We infer that, even in the case of the most technologically advanced service sectors, (domestic) demand constraints affect the degree of exploitation of technological opportunities and the patterns of growth.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg in its series Working Papers of BETA with number 2006-01.

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Date of creation: 2006
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Handle: RePEc:ulp:sbbeta:2006-01

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Keywords: Structural change; Growth of Services; Input–Output.;

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References

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  1. Montobbio, Fabio, 2002. "An evolutionary model of industrial growth and structural change," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 387-414, December.
  2. Barro, Robert J, 1991. "Economic Growth in a Cross Section of Countries," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 106(2), pages 407-43, May.
  3. André Lorentz & Patrick Llerena, 2004. "Co-Evolution of Macro-Dynamics and Technological Change : an Alternative View on Growth," Revue d'Économie Industrielle, Programme National Persée, vol. 105(1), pages 47-70.
  4. Schettkat, Ronald & Yocarini, Lara, 2003. "The Shift to Services: A Review of the Literature," IZA Discussion Papers 964, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  5. Bart Verspagen, 2004. "Structural Change and Technology. A Long View," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 55(6), pages 1099-1125.
  6. George Korres, 1996. "Sources of structural change: an input-output decomposition analysis for Greece," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(11), pages 707-710.
  7. Michael Peneder & Serguei Kaniovski & Bernhard Dachs, . "What Follows Tertiarisation? Structural Change and the Role of Knowledge-based Services," WIFO Working Papers 146, WIFO.
  8. Patrick Llerena & André Lorentz, 2004. "Cumulative Causation and Evolutionary Micro-Founded Technical Change. On the Determinants of Growth rate Differences," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 55(6), pages 1191-1214.
  9. Verspagen, B., 2000. "Growth and structural change: trends, patterns and policy options," Eindhoven Center for Innovation Studies (ECIS) working paper series 00.08, Eindhoven Center for Innovation Studies (ECIS).
  10. Baumol, William J, 1972. "Macroeconomics of Unbalanced Growth: Reply," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 62(1), pages 150, March.
  11. Fagerberg, Jan, 2000. "Technological progress, structural change and productivity growth: a comparative study," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 11(4), pages 393-411, December.
  12. Baumol, William J & Blackman, Sue Anne Batey & Wolff, Edward N, 1985. "Unbalanced Growth Revisited: Asymptotic Stagnancy and New Evidence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(4), pages 806-17, September.
  13. Giulio Cainelli & Rinaldo Evangelista & Maria Savona, 2006. "Innovation and economic performance in services: a firm-level analysis," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 30(3), pages 435-458, May.
  14. Fagerberg, Jan, 1994. "Technology and International Differences in Growth Rates," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 32(3), pages 1147-75, September.
  15. Giovanni Dosi & Christopher Freeman & Richard Nelson & Gerarld Silverberg & Luc Soete (ed.), 1988. "Technical Change and Economic Theory," LEM Book Series, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy, number dosietal-1988, June.
  16. Bart Verspagen, . "Evolutionary macroeconomics: A synthesis between neo-Schumpeterian and post-Keynesian lines of thought," The Electronic Journal of Evolutionary Modeling and Economic Dynamics, IFReDE - Université Montesquieu Bordeaux IV.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Camacho-Ballesta, José Antonio & Melikhova, Yulia, 2012. "Terciarización del sistema productivo ibérico: rasgos diferenciales/Tertiarisation of the Iberian Productive System: Differential Features," Estudios de Economía Aplicada, Estudios de Economía Aplicada, vol. 30, pages 761 (32 pag, Agosto.
  2. Tommaso Ciarli & Valentina Meliciani & Maria Savona, 2012. "Knowledge Dynamics, Structural Change And The Geography Of Business Services," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(3), pages 445-467, 07.
  3. Francesco Bogliacino & Matteo Lucchese & Mario Pianta, 2011. "Job creation in business services:Innovation, Demand, Polarisation," Working Papers 1107, University of Urbino Carlo Bo, Department of Economics, Society & Politics - Scientific Committee - L. Stefanini & G. Travaglini, revised 2011.
  4. André Lorentz & Maria Savona, 2006. "Evolutionary Micro-dynamics and Changes in the Economic Structure," LEM Papers Series 2006/28, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
  5. Davide CASTELLANI & Valentina MELICIANI & Loredana Mirra, 2012. "The determinants of inward foreign direct investment in business services across european regions," Quaderni del Dipartimento di Economia, Finanza e Statistica 104/2012, Università di Perugia, Dipartimento Economia, Finanza e Statistica.
  6. Faïz Gallouj & Maria Savona, 2009. "Innovation in services: a review of the debate and a research agenda," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 19(2), pages 149-172, April.
  7. Rafael Fernández & Enrique Palazuelos, 2009. "Labor productivity: a comparative analysis of the European Union and United States, for the period 1994-2007," Working Papers wp208, Political Economy Research Institute, University of Massachusetts at Amherst.
  8. Valentina Meliciani & Maria Savona, 2011. "The Determinants of Regional Specialisation in Business Services: Agglomeration Economies, Vertical Linkages and Innovation," SPRU Working Paper Series 193, SPRU - Science and Technology Policy Research, University of Sussex.

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