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Dealing with Demand Forecasting Games in Transport Privatization

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Author Info

  • Antonio Estache
  • Lourdes Trujillo
  • E. Quinet

Abstract

Privatization has increased the number of players in the decision-making process for major transport investment decisions. The main argument of this paper is that this fragmentation is creating opportunities for strategic decision-making by each actor and that this is particularly obvious in the context of demand forecasting. This paper explores some of the specific causes and consequences of this new situation, including the perverse incentives, linked to the diversity of the objectives across the actors and to the risk allocation induced by the regulatory regime. It illustrates the issues and possible solutions from a wide range of modal and country experiences. In particular, it discusses the role of the newly independent sector regulators in reconciling these diverse goals and their limitations in view of the major information asymmetries problems they face.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles in its series ULB Institutional Repository with number 2013/43981.

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Date of creation: Oct 2002
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Publication status: Published in: Transport policy (2002) v.9 n° 4,p.325-333
Handle: RePEc:ulb:ulbeco:2013/43981

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References

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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  1. Antonio Estache & C. Crampes, 1998. "Regulatory Trade-offs in Designing Concession Contracts for Infrastructure Networks," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/44014, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  2. Eduardo Engel & Ronald Fischer & Alexander Galetovic, 1998. "Least-Present-Value-of-Revenue Auctions and Highway Franchising," Documentos de Trabajo 37, Centro de Economía Aplicada, Universidad de Chile.
  3. Eduardo Engel & Ronald Fischer & Alexander Galetovic, 1997. "Highway Franchising: Pitfalls and Opportunities," Documentos de Trabajo 15, Centro de Economía Aplicada, Universidad de Chile.
  4. Skamris, Mette K. & Flyvbjerg, Bent, 1997. "Inaccuracy of traffic forecasts and cost estimates on large transport projects," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 4(3), pages 141-146, July.
  5. Antonio Estache, 2001. "Privatization and Regulation of Transport Infrastructure in the 1990s'," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/43998, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
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Cited by:
  1. Chantal C. Cantarelli & Bent Flybjerg & Eric J. E. Molin & Bert van Wee, 2013. "Cost overruns in Large-Scale Transportation Infrastructure Projects: Explanations and Their Theoretical Embeddedness," Papers 1307.2176, arXiv.org.
  2. Viegas, José M., 2010. "Questioning the need for full amortization in PPP contracts for transport Infrastructure," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 139-144.
  3. Hensher, David A., 2008. "Influence of vehicle occupancy on the valuation of car driver's travel time savings: Identifying important behavioural segments," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 67-76, January.
  4. Auriol, Emmanuelle & Picard, Pierre M, 2006. "Infrastructure and Public Utilities Privatization in Developing Countries," CEPR Discussion Papers 6018, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  5. Athias, Laure & Nunez, Antonio, 2008. "The more the merrier? Number of bidders, information dispersion, renegotiation and winner’s curse in toll road concessions," MPRA Paper 10539, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  6. Morasch, Karl & Tóth, Rita Orsolya, 2008. "Assigning tasks in public infrastructure projects: Specialized private agents or public private partnerships?," Working Papers in Economics 2008,2, Universität der Bundeswehr München, Economic Research Group.
  7. Estache, Antonio & Serebrisky, Tomas, 2004. "Where do we stand on transport infrastructure deregulation and public-private partnership?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3356, The World Bank.
  8. Polydoropoulou, Amalia & Roumboutsos, Athena, 2009. "Evaluating the impact of decision making during construction on transport project outcome," Evaluation and Program Planning, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 369-380, November.
  9. Hensher, David A. & Goodwin, Phil, 2004. "Using values of travel time savings for toll roads: avoiding some common errors," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 171-181, April.
  10. Grisolía, José María & Ortúzar, Juan de Dios, 2010. "Forecasting vs. observed outturn: Studying choice in faster inter-island connections," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 44(3), pages 159-168, March.

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