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The Transmission of International Shocks to CIS Economies: A Global VAR Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Oleksandr Faryna

    (National Bank of Ukraine)

  • Heli Simola

    (Institute for Economies in Transition BOFIT, Bank of Finland)

Abstract

This paper employs a Global Vector Auto Regressive (GVAR) model to study the evolution of the response of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) to foreign output and oil price shocks. During a two-decade observation period, cross-country trade and financial linkages experience notable changes. We find CIS countries highly sensitive to global and regional shocks, with that sensitivity increasing after the global financial crisis. CIS countries show strongest responses to output shocks originating in the US, Russia and within the region itself, but their sensitivity to euro area shocks also increases substantially. Despite growing trade relations with China, the responses of CIS countries to output shocks originating in China are still relatively moderate.

Suggested Citation

  • Oleksandr Faryna & Heli Simola, 2018. "The Transmission of International Shocks to CIS Economies: A Global VAR Approach," Working Papers 04/2018, National Bank of Ukraine.
    • Handle: RePEc:ukb:wpaper:04/2018
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Nuutilainen, Riikka & Rautava, Jouko, 2020. "Russia and the slowdown of the Chinese economy," BOFIT Policy Briefs 2/2020, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    2. repec:zbw:bofitp:2019_017 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Simola, Heli, 2019. "Effects of external shocks on Russian economy," BOFIT Policy Briefs 4/2019, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    4. Simola, Heli, 2019. "Evaluating international impacts of China-specific shocks in an input-output framework," BOFIT Discussion Papers 17/2019, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    international shocks; cross-country spillovers; CIS; Global VAR;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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