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Asset Pricing with Heterogeneous Agents, Incomplete Markets and Trading Constraints

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  • Tsvetanka Karagyozova

    (University of British Columbia)

Abstract

The consumption capital asset pricing model is the standard economic model used to capture stock market behavior. However, empirical tests have pointed out its inability to account quantitatively for the high average rate of return and volatility of stocks over time for plausible parameter values. Recent research has suggested that the consumption of stockholders is more strongly correlated with the performance of the stock market than the consumption of non-stockholders. We model two types of agents, non-stockholders with standard preferences and stock holders with preferences that incorporate elements of the prospect theory developed by Kahneman and Tversky (1979). In addition to consumption, stockholders consider fluctuations in their financial wealth explicitly when making decisions. Each agent faces idiosyncratic shocks to his labor income as well as aggregate shocks to the per-share dividend but markets are incomplete and agents cannot hedge consumption risks completely. In addition, consumers face both borrowing and short-sale constraints. Data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics are used to calibrate the labor income processes of the two types of agents. Our results show that in equilibrium, agents hold different portfolios. Our model is able to generate a time-varying risk premium of about 6% while maintaining a low risk free rate, thus suggesting a plausible explanation for the equity premium puzzle reported by Mehra and Prescott (1985).

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University of Connecticut, Department of Economics in its series Working papers with number 2007-46.

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Length: 62 pages
Date of creation: Nov 2007
Date of revision: Sep 2008
Handle: RePEc:uct:uconnp:2007-46

Note: I am grateful for comments and encouragement to Christian Zimmermann. I also thank Andra Ghent, seminar participants at the University of British Columbia and the University of Connecticut, and participants in the Canadian Economic Association 2008 Annual Meeting for helpful comments. Any conceptual or other errors are my fault.
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Keywords: asset pricing; equity premium puzzle; prospect theory; heterogeneous agents;

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References

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  1. Andrew B. Abel, 1990. "Asset Prices under Habit Formation and Catching up with the Joneses," NBER Working Papers 3279, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Rietz, Thomas A., 1988. "The equity risk premium a solution," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 117-131, July.
  3. Weil, Philippe, 1989. "The equity premium puzzle and the risk-free rate puzzle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 401-421, November.
  4. William F. Sharpe, 1964. "Capital Asset Prices: A Theory Of Market Equilibrium Under Conditions Of Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 19(3), pages 425-442, 09.
  5. Heaton, John & Lucas, Deborah J, 1996. "Evaluating the Effects of Incomplete Markets on Risk Sharing and Asset Pricing," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(3), pages 443-87, June.
  6. Philippe Jorion & William N. Goetzmann, 1999. "Global Stock Markets in the Twentieth Century," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(3), pages 953-980, 06.
  7. Mankiw, N. Gregory & Zeldes, Stephen P., 1991. "The consumption of stockholders and nonstockholders," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 97-112, March.
  8. Mehra, Rajnish & Prescott, Edward C., 2003. "The equity premium in retrospect," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 14, pages 889-938 Elsevier.
  9. Mehra, Rajnish & Prescott, Edward C., 1988. "The equity risk premium: A solution?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 133-136, July.
  10. Lillard, Lee A & Willis, Robert J, 1978. "Dynamic Aspects of Earning Mobility," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(5), pages 985-1012, September.
  11. Marcet, Albert & Singleton, Kenneth J., 1999. "Equilibrium Asset Prices And Savings Of Heterogeneous Agents In The Presence Of Incomplete Markets And Portfolio Constraints," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 3(02), pages 243-277, June.
  12. Albert Marcet & Guido Lorenzoni, 1998. "Parameterized expectations approach; Some practical issues," Economics Working Papers 296, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
  13. Rajnish Mehra, 2003. "The Equity Premium: Why is it a Puzzle?," NBER Working Papers 9512, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1978. "Asset Prices in an Exchange Economy," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1429-45, November.
  15. James M. Nason, 1988. "The equity premium and time-varying risk behavior," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 11, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  16. Lucas, Deborah J., 1994. "Asset pricing with undiversifiable income risk and short sales constraints: Deepening the equity premium puzzle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 325-341, December.
  17. Mehra, Rajnish & Prescott, Edward C., 1985. "The equity premium: A puzzle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 145-161, March.
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