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Trade Shoks and Aggregate Fluctuations in an Oil-Exporting Economy

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Abstract

In this paper we analyze the role of trade shocks in shaping aggregate fluctuations in Venezuela from 1950 to 1995. To this end a stochastic general equilibrium model of a small open economy whose main productive activity rests in the exports of a single basic product is specified. Shocks to the terms of trade which are directly associated to oil price changes are modelled as a foreign transfer. We find that this approach gives predictions that are consistent with the time series properties of Venezuela when i) the income efect of consumption more than compensates the substitution effect that generates the oil transfer and, ii) there is imperfect capital mobility. In particular, our model specification captures the observed patterns of the main aggregates after the oil resource boom of 1974.

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Paper provided by Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico in its series Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE with number 0301.

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Length: 31 pages
Date of creation: 2003
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ucm:doicae:0301

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Keywords: Trade shocks; Aggregate fuctuations; Emerging economies.;

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  1. Greenwood, Jeremy & Hercowitz, Zvi & Huffman, Gregory W, 1988. "Investment, Capacity Utilization, and the Real Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(3), pages 402-17, June.
  2. Prescott, Edward C., 1986. "Theory ahead of business-cycle measurement," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 11-44, January.
  3. Hansen, Gary D., 1985. "Indivisible labor and the business cycle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 309-327, November.
  4. M. Ayhan Kose & Raymond Riezman, 1999. "Trade Shocks and Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Africa," CESifo Working Paper Series 203, CESifo Group Munich.
  5. Mendoza, Enrique G, 1995. "The Terms of Trade, the Real Exchange Rate, and Economic Fluctuations," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 36(1), pages 101-37, February.
  6. Rogerson, Richard, 1988. "Indivisible labor, lotteries and equilibrium," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 3-16, January.
  7. Correia, Maria Isabel Horta & Neves, Joao C & Rebelo, Sérgio, 1994. "Business Cycles in a Small Open Economy," CEPR Discussion Papers 996, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  8. Wilson, Robert, 1979. "Auctions of Shares," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 93(4), pages 675-89, November.
  9. Backus, David K. & Crucini, Mario J., 2000. "Oil prices and the terms of trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 185-213, February.
  10. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1982. "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(6), pages 1345-70, November.
  11. Mendoza, Enrique G, 1991. "Real Business Cycles in a Small Open Economy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(4), pages 797-818, September.
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