Climate (change) and conflict: resolving a puzzle of association and causation
AbstractThere is an ongoing discussion especially among political scientists and economists whether and how climate variability affects civil conflicts and wars in developing countries. Given the predicted climatic changes, several studies argue that increasing temperatures or decreasing precipitation will lead to more conflicts in the future. This paper aims at linking the different strands of the literature by analyzing the causal mechanisms at work. We use short-term weather variability as well as long-term changes in Sub-Saharan Africa and find that climate (change) significantly affects agricultural output, to some extent also GDP, and has no robust direct effects on civil wars. Negative shocks in GDP, however, have the expected fostering effects on civil conflicts.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Universitaet Bern, Departement Volkswirtschaft in its series Diskussionsschriften with number dp1203.
Date of creation: Apr 2012
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Civil conflict; climate change; economic shocks; Africa;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances
- Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters
- C36 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Instrumental Variables (IV) Estimation
- N47 - Economic History - - Government, War, Law, International Relations, and Regulation - - - Africa; Oceania
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-AFR-2012-04-17 (Africa)
- NEP-AGR-2012-04-17 (Agricultural Economics)
- NEP-ALL-2012-04-17 (All new papers)
- NEP-ENV-2012-04-17 (Environmental Economics)
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