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Antibiotic Demand in the Presence of Antimicrobial Resistance

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  • Dubois, Pierre
  • Gokkoca, Gokce

Abstract

Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) increases hospital stays, medical costs and mortality. Antibiotic consumption and resulting selective pressure on bacteria can create AMR. We study the role of AMR on changes in prescriptions of antibiotics in France for treating bladder inflammation (cystitis) using a representative sample of general practitioners between 2002 and 2019. Effects of resistance on demand and substitution behavior are identified via a random coefficient logit model, controlling for the endogeneity of resistance using antibiotics sales in veterinary medicine. As resistance increases, physicians substitute to other drugs, and we test whether physicians consider predictable resistance evolution in their decisions. We perform counterfactual analysis assessing the impact of decreasing veterinary use of antibiotics and limiting fluoroquinolone use to treat cystitis. Both policies reduce resistance against fluoroquinolones but have opposite effects on substitution behavior and consumer surplus. Finally, we propose a method for the optimal pricing of rapid bacterial detection and antibiotic susceptibility testing.

Suggested Citation

  • Dubois, Pierre & Gokkoca, Gokce, 2023. "Antibiotic Demand in the Presence of Antimicrobial Resistance," TSE Working Papers 23-1457, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
    • Handle: RePEc:tse:wpaper:128309
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Hannes Ullrich & Michael Allan Ribers, 2023. "Machine predictions and human decisions with variation in payoffs and skill: the case of antibiotic prescribing," Berlin School of Economics Discussion Papers 0027, Berlin School of Economics.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • I10 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - General
    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
    • L11 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Production, Pricing, and Market Structure; Size Distribution of Firms
    • C25 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions; Probabilities

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