IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/tiu/tiutis/d25a4674-f58e-49cd-b80a-f837f7c358d4.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Pricing Term Structure Risk in Futures Markets

Author

Listed:
  • Nijman, T.E.

    (Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management)

  • de Roon, F.A.

    (Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management)

  • Veld, C.H.

    (Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management)

Abstract

One-period expected returns on futures contracts with different maturities differ because of risk premia in the spreads between futures and spot prices. We analyze the expected returns for futures contracts with different maturities using the information that is present in the current term structure of futures prices. A simple affine one-factor model that implies a constant covariance between the pricing kernel and the cost-of-carry cannot be rejected for heating oil and German Mark futures contracts. For gold and soybean futures, the risk premia depend on the slope of the current term structure of futures prices, while for live cattle futures, the evidence is mixed.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Nijman, T.E. & de Roon, F.A. & Veld, C.H., 1996. "Pricing Term Structure Risk in Futures Markets," Other publications TiSEM d25a4674-f58e-49cd-b80a-f, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    • Handle: RePEc:tiu:tiutis:d25a4674-f58e-49cd-b80a-f837f7c358d4
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://pure.uvt.nl/ws/portalfiles/portal/525064/78.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Fama, Eugene F., 1986. "Term premiums and default premiums in money markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 175-196, September.
    2. Bessembinder, Hendrik, et al, 1995. "Mean Reversion in Equilibrium Asset Prices: Evidence from the Futures Term Structure," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(1), pages 361-375, March.
    3. McCurdy, Thomas H. & Morgan, Ieuan G., 1987. "Tests of the martingale hypothesis for foreign currency futures with time-varying volatility," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 131-148.
    4. Eugene F. Fama & Kenneth R. French, 2015. "Commodity Futures Prices: Some Evidence on Forecast Power, Premiums, and the Theory of Storage," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Anastasios G Malliaris & William T Ziemba (ed.), THE WORLD SCIENTIFIC HANDBOOK OF FUTURES MARKETS, chapter 4, pages 79-102, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    5. Vasicek, Oldrich, 1977. "An equilibrium characterization of the term structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 177-188, November.
    6. Hakkio, Craig S. & Leiderman, Leonardo, 1986. "Intertemporal asset pricing and the term structures of exchange rates and interest rates: The eurocurrency market," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 325-344, April.
    7. Vasicek, Oldrich Alfonso, 1977. "Abstract: An Equilibrium Characterization of the Term Structure," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(4), pages 627-627, November.
    8. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1988. " Business Cycles and the Behavior of Metals Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 43(5), pages 1075-1093, December.
    9. Cox, John C. & Ingersoll, Jonathan Jr. & Ross, Stephen A., 1981. "The relation between forward prices and futures prices," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 321-346, December.
    10. Bessembinder, Hendrik, 1992. "Systematic Risk, Hedging Pressure, and Risk Premiums in Futures Markets," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(4), pages 637-667.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Patricia Fraser & Andrew McKaig, 2001. "Basis variation and a common source of risk: evidence from UK futures markets," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(1), pages 39-62.
    2. Ahmed, Shamim & Tsvetanov, Daniel, 2016. "The predictive performance of commodity futures risk factors," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 20-36.
    3. Shi, Wei & Irwin, Scott H. & Good, Darrel L. & Dietz, Sarah N., 2005. "Wheat Forward Contract Pricing: Evidence on Forecast Power and Risk Premia," 2005 Conference, April 18-19, 2005, St. Louis, Missouri 19043, NCR-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
    4. Thomas Bollinger & Axel Kind, 2015. "Risk Premiums in the Cross-Section of Commodity Convenience Yields," Working Paper Series of the Department of Economics, University of Konstanz 2015-17, Department of Economics, University of Konstanz.
    5. Brooks, Robert & El-Keib, A. A., 1998. "A life-cycle view of electricity futures contracts," Journal of Energy Finance & Development, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 171-183.
    6. van den Goorbergh, R.W.J., 2004. "Essays on optimal hedging and investment strategies and on derivative pricing," Other publications TiSEM 4b4b16af-8621-463f-bbfa-0, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    7. Kumar, Satish & Trück, Stefan, 2014. "Unbiasedness and risk premiums in the Indian currency futures market," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 13-32.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Anh Ngoc Lai & Constantin Mellios, 2016. "Valuation of commodity derivatives with an unobservable convenience yield," Post-Print halshs-01183166, HAL.
    2. Hélyette Geman & Vu-Nhat Nguyen, 2005. "Soybean Inventory and Forward Curve Dynamics," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 51(7), pages 1076-1091, July.
    3. Mellios, Constantin & Six, Pierre & Lai, Anh Ngoc, 2016. "Dynamic speculation and hedging in commodity futures markets with a stochastic convenience yield," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 250(2), pages 493-504.
    4. Liu, Peng & Tang, Ke, 2011. "The stochastic behavior of commodity prices with heteroskedasticity in the convenience yield," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 211-224, March.
    5. John Crosby, 2008. "A multi-factor jump-diffusion model for commodities," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(2), pages 181-200.
    6. Thomas Bollinger & Axel Kind, 2015. "Risk Premiums in the Cross-Section of Commodity Convenience Yields," Working Paper Series of the Department of Economics, University of Konstanz 2015-17, Department of Economics, University of Konstanz.
    7. Bredin, Don & O'Sullivan, Conall & Spencer, Simon, 2021. "Forecasting WTI crude oil futures returns: Does the term structure help?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    8. Raimbourg, Philippe & Zimmermann, Paul, 2022. "Is normal backwardation normal? Valuing financial futures with a local index-rate covariance," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 298(1), pages 351-367.
    9. Björn Lutz, 2010. "Pricing of Derivatives on Mean-Reverting Assets," Lecture Notes in Economics and Mathematical Systems, Springer, number 978-3-642-02909-7, December.
    10. Tiziana Di Matteo & Tomaso Aste, 2002. "How Does The Eurodollar Interest Rate Behave?," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 5(01), pages 107-122.
    11. Ako Doffou & Jimmy E. Hilliard, 2001. "Pricing Currency Options Under Stochastic Interest Rates And Jump-Diffusion Processes," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 24(4), pages 565-585, December.
    12. Densing, M., 2012. "Occupation times of the Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process: Functional PCA and evidence from electricity prices," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 391(23), pages 5818-5826.
    13. Lim, Terence & Lo, Andrew W. & Merton, Robert C. & Scholes, Myron S., 2006. "The Derivatives Sourcebook," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 1(5–6), pages 365-572, April.
    14. Poskitt, Russell, 2008. "Interest rate futures and forwards: Evidence from the sterling futures and FRA markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 18(5), pages 399-412, December.
    15. repec:uts:finphd:40 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Nikolay Gospodinov & Ibrahim Jamali, 2018. "Monetary policy uncertainty, positions of traders and changes in commodity futures prices," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 24(2), pages 239-260, March.
    17. Jonathan Kearns, 2007. "Commodity Currencies: Why Are Exchange Rate Futures Biased if Commodity Futures Are Not?," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 83(260), pages 60-73, March.
    18. Duffie, Darrell, 2003. "Intertemporal asset pricing theory," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 11, pages 639-742, Elsevier.
    19. Lautier, Delphine & Raynaud, Franck, 2011. "Statistical properties of derivatives: A journey in term structures," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 390(11), pages 2009-2019.
    20. Richter, Martin & Sørensen, Carsten, 2002. "Stochastic Volatility and Seasonality in Commodity Futures and Options: The Case of Soybeans," Working Papers 2002-4, Copenhagen Business School, Department of Finance.
    21. Gupta, Anurag & Subrahmanyam, Marti G., 2000. "An empirical examination of the convexity bias in the pricing of interest rate swaps," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 239-279, February.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:tiu:tiutis:d25a4674-f58e-49cd-b80a-f837f7c358d4. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Richard Broekman (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.tilburguniversity.edu/about/schools/economics-and-management/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.