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Turkiye’de Konjonkturel Etkilerden Arindirilmis Cari Islemler Dengesi

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  • Hakan Kara
  • Cagri Sarikaya

Abstract

Turkiye’de son yillarda cari islemler aciginin yuksek seviyelerde dalgali bir seyir izlemesi ve buna paralel olarak gundeme gelen kirilganliklar, dis dengeyi makroekonomik istikrari saglamaya yonelik politikalarin merkezine oturtmaktadir. Cari islemler dengesine dair politika tasariminin saglikli bir sekilde yapilabilmesi icin oncelikle herhangi bir donemde cari acigin ne kadarinin konjonkturel (cevrimsel) ne kadarinin yapisal unsurlara atfedilebilecegi sorusunun yanitlanmasi gerekmektedir. Bu calisma basit bir yontemle ic talep, dis talep ve dis ticaret fiyatlarindaki konjonkturel etkileri arindirarak cari islemler dengesinin uzun vadeli ana egilimini tespit etmeyi amaclamaktadir. Cesitli varsayimlar altinda yapilan hesaplamalar, son 10 yillik donemde cari islemler dengesinde yapisal (konjonkturel etkilerle aciklanamayan) bir bozulmaya isaret etmektedir. Yakin donemde ise cari islemler aciginin milli gelire orani yuzde 5 civarinda istikrarli bir ana egilim sergilemektedir. Calismanin bulgulari, cari denge dinamiklerinin ve buna yonelik uygulanan politikalarin anlasilmasina katkida bulunmaktadir.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey in its series Working Papers with number 1340.

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Date of creation: 2013
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Handle: RePEc:tcb:wpaper:1340

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Keywords: Cari Denge; Dis Ticaret; Is Cevrimi; Cevrim Uyarlamasi; Filtreleme;

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