Short Run Import Dynamics in Turkey
AbstractWe study the short-run dynamics of Turkish imports between 2003 and 2011 by applying Kalman filter to obtain time-varying parameters for income and exchange rate. In addition to total imports excluding energy, we use data based on broad economic activities in order to allow sectoral heterogeneity in income and exchange rate elasticities. Our results indicate that income is more important (compared to the exchange rate) in determining import growth in most of the sectors, though there is heterogeneity among sectoral responses. Moreover, we find that elasticities (especially for income) change over time, and the change is more prominent after the 2008 financial crisis. Finally, we find evidence of aggregation bias in income elasticity estimates, which increase in recent years.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey in its series Working Papers with number 1225.
Date of creation: 2012
Date of revision:
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Import demand; Kalman filter; aggregation bias;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
- C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
- F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2012-09-22 (All new papers)
- NEP-ARA-2012-09-22 (MENA - Middle East & North Africa)
- NEP-CWA-2012-09-22 (Central & Western Asia)
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- A. Hakan Kara & Cagri Sarikaya, 2013. "Cyclically Adjusted Current Account Balance," CBT Research Notes in Economics 1318, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
- Hakan Kara & Cagri Sarikaya, 2013.
"Turkiye’de Konjonkturel Etkilerden Arindirilmis Cari Islemler Dengesi,"
1340, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
- Hakan KARA & Çağrı SARIKAYA, 2013. "Türkiye’de Konjonktürel Etkilerden Arındırılmış Cari İşlemler Dengesi," Iktisat Isletme ve Finans, Bilgesel Yayincilik, vol. 28(332), pages 09-32.
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