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Between the Sword and the Wall: Spain's Limited Options for Catalan Secessionism

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  • Griffiths, Ryan D.
  • Guillen, Pablo
  • Martinez i Coma, Ferran

Abstract

We propose a game theoretical model to assess the capacity of Catalonia to become a recognized, independent country with at least a de facto European Union (EU) membership. Support for Catalan independence is increasing for reasons pertaining to identity and economics. Spain can avoid a vote for independence by effectively ‘buying-out' a proportion of the Catalan electorate with a funding agreement favorable to Catalonia. If, given the current economic circumstances, the buying-out strategy is too expensive, a proindependence vote is likely to pass. Our model predicts an agreement in which Spain and the European Union accommodate Catalan independence in exchange for Catalonia taking a share of the Spanish debt. If Spain and the EU do not accommodate, Spain becomes insolvent, which in turn destabilizes the EU. The current economic woes of Spain and the EU both contribute to the desire for Catalan independence and make it possibl e.

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/2123/9383
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Paper provided by University of Sydney, School of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 2013-17.

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Date of creation: Sep 2013
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Handle: RePEc:syd:wpaper:2123/9383

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  1. Coggins, Bridget, 2011. "Friends in High Places: International Politics and the Emergence of States from Secessionism," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 65(03), pages 433-467, July.
  2. Finnemore, Martha & Sikkink, Kathryn, 1998. "International Norm Dynamics and Political Change," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 52(04), pages 887-917, September.
  3. Charles M. Tiebout, 1956. "A Pure Theory of Local Expenditures," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 64, pages 416.
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