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Measuring the Welfare Effect of Entry in Differentiated Product Markets: The Case of Medicare HMOs

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Author Info
Shiko Maruyama () (School of Economics, The University of New South Wales)

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Abstract

Should governments subsidize entry to promote competition? In general, theory models cannot determine whether entry under the free-entry condition is socially excessive, optimal, or insufficient. In this paper I propose an empirical framework to evaluate welfare consequences of policy intervention through entry in differentiated product markets, with a case study of the US Medicare HMO market. In endogenizing firms' entry-exit decision, a technical breakthrough is to explicitly incorporate firm heterogeneity by employing a sequential move game. This enables us to exploit detailed firm level data and makes policy simulations relevant. I find no evidence of socially excessive entry. The government may achieve higher social welfare by expanding the program.

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Paper provided by School of Economics, The University of New South Wales in its series Discussion Papers with number 2008-01.

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Length: 47 pages
Date of creation: Jan 2008
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Handle: RePEc:swe:wpaper:2008-01

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  1. Steven Berry & Joel Waldfogel, 1996. "Free Entry and Social Inefficiency in Radio Broadcasting," NBER Working Papers 5528, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Timothy F. Bresnahan & Peter C. Reiss, 1987. "Do Entry Conditions Vary across Markets?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 18(1987-3), pages 833-882. [Downloadable!]
  3. Michael J. Mazzeo, 2002. "Product Choice and Oligopoly Market Structure," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 33(2), pages 221-242, Summer.
  4. Nevo, Aviv, 2001. "Measuring Market Power in the Ready-to-Eat Cereal Industry," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(2), pages 307-42, March.
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  5. N. Gregory Mankiw & Michael D. Whinston, 1986. "Free Entry and Social Inefficiency," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 17(1), pages 48-58, Spring. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Spence, Michael, 1976. "Product Selection, Fixed Costs, and Monopolistic Competition," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43(2), pages 217-35, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Steven T. Berry, 1994. "Estimating Discrete-Choice Models of Product Differentiation," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 25(2), pages 242-262, Summer. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Shiko Maruyama, 2006. "Welfare Analysis Incorporating a Structural Entry-Exit Model: A Case Study of Medicare HMOs," Hi-Stat Discussion Paper Series d06-166, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University. [Downloadable!]
  9. Leemore Dafny & David Dranove, 2005. "Do Report Cards Tell Consumers Anything They Don't Already Know? The Case of Medicare HMOs," NBER Working Papers 11420, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Town, Robert & Liu, Su, 2003. " The Welfare Impact of Medicare HMOs," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 34(4), pages 719-36, Winter.
  11. Paul Contoyannis & Andrew M. Jones & Roberto Leon-Gonzalez, 2004. "Using simulation-based inference with panel data in health economics," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(2), pages 101-122. [Downloadable!]
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  12. Berry, Steven T, 1992. "Estimation of a Model of Entry in the Airline Industry," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(4), pages 889-917, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Elie Tamer & Federico Ciliberto, 2004. "Market Structure and Multiple Equilibria in Airline Markets," Econometric Society 2004 North American Winter Meetings 517, Econometric Society.
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  1. Shiko Maruyama, 2009. "Estimating Sequential-move Games by a Recursive Conditioning Simulator," Discussion Papers 2009-01, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales. [Downloadable!]
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