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Terrorism, education and the role of expectations: evidence from al-Shabaab attacks in Kenya

Author

Listed:
  • Marco Alfano

    (Department of Economics, University of Strathclyde)

  • Joseph-Simon Gorlach

    (Centre for Research and Analysis of Migration, University College London)

Abstract

This paper explores how terrorism alters human capital investment by affecting expectations. Using different estimators, we identify a negative causal effect of terrorism on Kenyan primary school enrolment and attendance. Among these, we exploit al-Shabaab's revenue streams and position in the al-Qaeda network to predict attacks. To isolate the significant contribution of indirect mechanisms|like expectation we use fi nely geo-coded data on children and their closest schools as well as border discontinuities in educational provision, combined with media and attitudinal data. Moreover, we evaluate the degree and effect of the discrepancy between objective and subjective expectations in a structural model.

Suggested Citation

  • Marco Alfano & Joseph-Simon Gorlach, 2019. "Terrorism, education and the role of expectations: evidence from al-Shabaab attacks in Kenya," Working Papers 1904, University of Strathclyde Business School, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:str:wpaper:1904
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    Cited by:

    1. Timothy Besley & Thiemo Fetzer & Hannes Mueller, 2023. "How Big Is the Media Multiplier? Evidence from Dyadic News Data," CESifo Working Paper Series 10619, CESifo.
    2. Ze Chen & Yuan Wang & Yanjun Guan & Michael Jie Guo & Rong Xu, 2023. "Long‐term effect of childhood pandemic experience on medical major choice: Evidence from the 2003 severe acute respiratory syndrome outbreak in China," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(5), pages 1120-1147, May.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    terrorism; education; expectations;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • I21 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Analysis of Education
    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration

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