This file is part of IDEAS, which uses RePEc data


[ Papers | Articles | Software | Books | Chapters | Authors | Institutions | JEL Classification | NEP reports | Search | New papers by email | Author registration | Rankings | Volunteers | FAQ | Blog | Help! ]

Fiscal sustainability: Must the problem be diminished before we can see it?

Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics
Author Info
Erling Holmøy () (Statistics Norway)
Abstract

Assessments of fiscal sustainability (FS) problems should be based on present values of government revenues and expenditures over an infinite horizon. The paper shows that realistic assumptions imply that the growth rate of government expenditure components may exceed both the steady state growth rate of the economy and the relevant discount rate, which makes the FS problem immeasurably large. The common practice of ad hoc exogenous alignment of government expenditures to the steady state growth path after some distant year may significantly diminish the FS problem, since the effective discounting is likely to remain low. Low effective discounting also makes the FS assessment highly non-robust, reducing its political relevance. It suggests that the fiscal sustainability should be improved by reducing the growth rates of government expenditures, a strategy followed in e.g. the Swedish pension reform.

Download Info
To download:

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. Information about this may be contained in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help file. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.ssb.no/publikasjoner/DP/pdf/dp499.pdf
File Format: application/pdf
File Function:
Download Restriction: no

Publisher Info
Paper provided by Research Department of Statistics Norway in its series Discussion Papers with number 499.

Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML, plain text, BibTeX, RIS (EndNote), ReDIF
Length:
Date of creation: Apr 2007
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ssb:dispap:499

Contact details of provider:
Postal: P.O.Box 8131 Dep, N-0033 Oslo, Norway
Phone: (+47) 21 09 00 00
Fax: (+47) 21 09 49 73
Email:
Web page: http://www.ssb.no
More information through EDIRC

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: (B Mellemstrand).

Related research
Keywords: Fiscal sustainability long run projections discounting

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:
H30 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - General
H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Klette, T.J., 1998. "Market Power, Scale Economies and Productivity: Estimates from a Panel of Establishment Data," Memorandum 15/1998, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
    Other versions:
  2. Thai Than Dang & Pablo Antolin & Howard Oxley, 2001. "Fiscal Implications of Ageing: Projections of Age-Related Spending," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 305, OECD Economics Department. [Downloadable!]
  3. Erling Holmøy, 2006. "Can welfare states outgrow their fiscal sustainability problems?," Discussion Papers 487, Research Department of Statistics Norway. [Downloadable!]
  4. Kim Massey Heide, Erling Holmøy, Ingeborg Foldøy Solli and Birger Strøm, 2006. "A welfare state funded by nature and OPEC. A guided tour on Norway's path from an exceptionally impressive to an exceptionally strained fiscal position," Discussion Papers 464, Research Department of Statistics Norway. [Downloadable!]
  5. Torben M. Andersen & Lars Haagen Pedersen, 2006. "Financial Restraints in a Mature Welfare State--The Case of Denmark," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 22(3), pages 313-329, Autumn.
  6. William D. Nordhaus, 2006. "The "Stern Review" on the Economics of Climate Change," NBER Working Papers 12741, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Jagadeesh Gokhale & Kent Smetters, 2005. "Measuring Social Security's Financial Problems," NBER Working Papers 11060, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  8. Martin Feldstein, 2005. "Structural Reform of Social Security," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 19(2), pages 33-55, Spring. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Martin Feldstein, 2005. "Structural Reform of Social Security," NBER Working Papers 11098, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Beetsma, Roel & Bettendorf, Leon & Broer, Peter, 2003. "The budgeting and economic consequences of ageing in the Netherlands," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 20(5), pages 987-1013, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
Full references

Statistics
Access and download statistics

Did you know? To receive notification of recent additions to the database, subscribe to the free NEP reports.

This page was last updated on 2008-9-5.


This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Department of Economics, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, University of Connecticut using RePEc data on a server sponsored by the Society for Economic Dynamics.