A welfare state funded by nature and OPEC. A guided tour on Norway's path from an exceptionally impressive to an exceptionally strained fiscal position
AbstractLarge petroleum revenues make Norway an enviable fiscal loner. The fiscal policy rule adopted from 2001 transforms petroleum wealth into foreign assets, and only the real return on the financial fund should be spent annually. Despite this ambitious saving of the petroleum wealth, we find it unlikely that present tax rates and welfare schemes are sustainable in a long run perspective. Rather, the results from combining detailed models of demography and government expenditures with a detailed CGE model, suggest that Norway is exceptional also with respect to strong growth in government expenditures. In our baseline scenario the payroll tax rate must be increased continuously when ageing sets in after 2020, passing twice the present level about 2045. This is required even if the pension fund reaches 1.4 times GDP, commanding an unprecedented degree of fiscal discipline.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Research Department of Statistics Norway in its series Discussion Papers with number 464.
Date of creation: Jul 2006
Date of revision:
Population ageing; Fiscal sustainability; Computable general equilibrium model; Dynamic micro simulation;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- H30 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - General
- H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
- H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2006-09-30 (All new papers)
- NEP-CMP-2006-09-30 (Computational Economics)
- NEP-MAC-2006-09-30 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-PBE-2006-09-30 (Public Economics)
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