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Is Norway immune to Dutch Disease? CGE Estimates of Sustainable Wage Growth and De-industrialisation

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Norway's petroleum wealth has become considerably more liquid and thereby visible to the public since the mid 1990s. In the policy debate transformation of wealth is often confused with ordinary income. Such a misconception may have contributed to de-industrialisation through real appreciation beyond what is sustainable in a long run perspective. Since re-industrialisation is typically considered difficult, it is important to estimate a norm for sustainable wage growth. In Norway the textbook model of the Small Open Economy (SOE) has often been used for this purpose. We argue that this model neglects important aspects of the Norwegian economy. Instead we use a large scale dynamic CGE-model to estimate sustainable paths for wage growth and the activity in the traded goods sector, especially manufacturing. Under plausible assumptions we find that about 0.5 percent annual reduction of manufacturing employment is sustainable. The real appreciation over the last 7 years has been substantially above a sustainable trend.

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  • Erling Holmøy & Kim Massey Heide, 2005. "Is Norway immune to Dutch Disease? CGE Estimates of Sustainable Wage Growth and De-industrialisation," Discussion Papers 413, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
    • Handle: RePEc:ssb:dispap:413
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    1. Kim Massey Heide & Erling Holmøy & Ingeborg Foldøy Solli & Birger Strøm, 2006. "A welfare state funded by nature and OPEC. A guided tour on Norway's path from an exceptionally impressive to an exceptionally strained fiscal position," Discussion Papers 464, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
    2. Tanja Broz & Dinko Dubravcic, 2011. "The Dutch Disease in Unwonted Places. Why has Croatia been Infected while Slovenia Remains in Good Health?," South-Eastern Europe Journal of Economics, Association of Economic Universities of South and Eastern Europe and the Black Sea Region, vol. 9(1), pages 47-66.
    3. Luis Felipe Céspedes C. & David Rappoport W, 2006. "El Fondo Gubernamental de Petróleo de Noruega," Notas de Investigación Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 9(1), pages 71-78, April.
    4. Kim Heide & Dennis Fredriksen & Erling Holmøy & Ingeborg Foldøy Solli, 2006. "The Declining Skill-premium in Norway: How Skill-Biased Technical Change is Compatible with a Declining Wage Premium," EcoMod2006 272100038, EcoMod.
    5. Erling Holmøy, 2007. "Fiscal sustainability: Must the problem be diminished before we can see it?," Discussion Papers 499, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
    6. Pereira, Mauricio & De Miguel, Carlos J. & Ulloa, Andrés & O'Ryan, Raúl, 2009. "Síndrome holandés, regalías mineras y políticas de gobierno para un país dependiente de recursos naturales: el cobre en Chile," Medio Ambiente y Desarrollo 5681, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    7. Manzoor, Davood & Haqiqi, Iman & Aghababaei, Mohammad, 2012. "Modeling Dutch Disease in the Economy of Iran: A Computable General Equilibrium Approach," MPRA Paper 95821, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    Keywords

    Dutch Disease; multi-sector growth; dynamic CGE-modelling.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance

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