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La crise sur un plateau : perspectives 2013-2014

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  • Xavier Timbeau

    (OFCE)

Abstract

Selon les promoteurs de la rigueur à marche forcée, l’amélioration du climat conjoncturel dans la zone euro illustrerait les premiers bénéfices de la stratégie de consolidation budgétaire telle qu’elle a été conduite depuis 2010. C’est négliger l’effet multiplicateur très négatif de la rigueur sur l’activité, la généralisation des ajustements qui a accentué l’effet récessif de ces choix de politique économique et le mauvais calibrage de l’effort imposé aux pays qui a étouffé la reprise naissante en 2010 et empêché la résorption de la partie conjoncturelle des déficits. On peut plutôt voir dans l’embellie de la conjoncture en zone euro la conséquence des arrangements institutionnels qui ont permis de contenir la crise des dettes souveraines et qui ont consisté à faire endosser le risque de détention de dette souveraine par des tiers via une forme de mutualisation. La zone euro sera enlisée dans la faible croissance d’ici à 2015 et ne pourra guère compter sur le dynamisme vacillant de ses partenaires extérieurs, les États-Unis et les pays émergents.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Sciences Po in its series Sciences Po publications with number info:hdl:2441/6ggbvnr6munghes9ob627a1r2.

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Length: 285 pages
Date of creation: Oct 2013
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published in Revue de l'OFCE - Analyse et prévisions, 2013
Handle: RePEc:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/6ggbvnr6munghes9ob627a1r2

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