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Effects of ECB balance sheet policy announcements on inflation expectations

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  • Richhild Moessner
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    Abstract

    We investigate whether ECB balance sheet policy announcements in the wake of the global financial crisis have affected the ECB.s monetary policy credibility as measured by long-term inflation expectations, by looking at their effects on euro area inflation swap rates of maturities up to 10 years. We consider asset purchase programmes and long-term refinancing operations with maturities above 6 months. We find that these announcements only led to a slight increase in long-term inflation expectations. We therefore find no strong evidence to suggest that ECB balance sheet policy announcements have led to much higher long-term inflation expectations, suggesting that the monetary policy credibility of the ECB has not been harmed by these policies.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department in its series DNB Working Papers with number 416.

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    Date of creation: Mar 2014
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    Handle: RePEc:dnb:dnbwpp:416

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    Keywords: Monetary policy; central bank communication; balance sheet policies; inflation expectations;

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    1. Urszula Szczerbowicz, 2012. "The ECB Unconventional Monetary Policies: Have They Lowered Market Borrowing Costs for Banks and Governments?," Working Papers 2012-36, CEPII research center.
    2. Marie Briere & Florian Ielpo, 2007. "Yield curve reaction to macroeconomic news in Europe :disentangling the US influence," Working Papers CEB 07-038.RS, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    3. Jakob de Haan & Willem van den End & Jon Frost & Christiaan Pattipeilohy & Mostafa Tabbae, 2013. "Unconventional Monetary Policy of the ECB during the Financial Crisis: An Assessment and New Evidence," SUERF 50th Anniversary Volume Chapters, SUERF - The European Money and Finance Forum.
    4. Sharon Kozicki & Eric Santor & Lena Suchanek, 2011. "Unconventional Monetary Policy: The International Experience with Central Bank Asset Purchases," Bank of Canada Review, Bank of Canada, vol. 2011(Spring), pages 13-25.
    5. Cour-Thimann, Philippine & Winkler, Bernhard, 2013. "The ECB’s non-standard monetary policy measures: the role of institutional factors and financial structure," Working Paper Series 1528, European Central Bank.
    6. Alan S. Blinder & Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher & Jakob De Haan & David-Jan Jansen, 2008. "Central Bank Communication and Monetary Policy: A Survey of Theory and Evidence," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 46(4), pages 910-45, December.
    7. Toni Gravelle & Richhild Moessner, 2001. "Reactions of Canadian Interest Rates to Macroeconomic Announcements: Implications for Monetary Policy Transparency," Working Papers 01-5, Bank of Canada.
    8. Martina Cecioni & Giuseppe Ferrero & Alessandro Secchi, 2011. "Unconventional Monetary Policy in Theory and in Practice," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 102, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    9. Gabriela Galati & Steven Poelhekke & Chen Zhou, 2011. "Did the Crisis Affect Inflation Expectations?," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 7(1), pages 167-207, March.
    10. Michael Woodford, 2012. "Methods of policy accommodation at the interest-rate lower bound," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 185-288.
    11. Jonathan H. Wright, 2011. "What does Monetary Policy do to Long-Term Interest Rates at the Zero Lower Bound?," NBER Working Papers 17154, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Linda Goldberg & Deborah Leonard, 2003. "What moves sovereign bond markets? The effects of economic news on U.S. and German yields," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 9(Sep).
    13. Matteo Falagiarda & Stefan Reitz, 2013. "Announcements of ECB Unconventional Programs: Implications for the Sovereign Risk of Italy," Kiel Working Papers 1866, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
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