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L’immobilier, pilier de la croissance ou épée de Damoclès : bulle immobilière, causes et conséquences macro-économiques d’un retournement du marché immobilier

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Author Info

  • Hervé Péléraux

    (OFCE)

  • Xavier Timbeau

    (OFCE)

  • Eric Heyer

    (OFCE)

  • Sabine Le Bayon

    (OFCE)

Abstract

La hausse récente des prix immobiliers est préoccupante. Depuis le creux du marché immobilier en 1997, la hausse en termes réels a été supérieure à 70 %. Le spectre de la récession de 1993 et du retournement des prix surgit dans les commentaires. La crainte d’une bulle spéculative, d’un emballement du marché immobilier laisse présager un retournement brutal qui laisseraient ménages, banques et investisseurs institutionnels désemparés face à leurs engagements. Il faudrait alors de nombreuses années pour apurer ce marché et la situation financière des agents. L’inflation des prix d’actifs serait le prélude à une inflation incontrôlable, qui des prix des logements se transmet aux loyers. La responsabilité des autorités publiques françaises et européennes serait alors d’éteindre ce foyer d’incendie avant que tout ne brûle, par une hausse graduelle mais ferme des taux d’intérêt. Nous allons montrer que le motif d’inquiétude n’est pas là.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Sciences Po in its series Sciences Po publications with number 2005-16.

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Date of creation: Oct 2005
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Handle: RePEc:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/1756

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  1. Jonathan McCarthy & Richard W. Peach, 2004. "Are home prices the next "bubble"?," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Dec, pages 1-17.
  2. Paul van den Noord, 2003. "Tax Incentives and House Price Volatility in the Euro Area: Theory and Evidence," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 356, OECD Publishing.
  3. Jorge Martínez Pagés & Luis Ángel Maza, 2003. "Analysis of house prices in Spain," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 0307, Banco de Espa�a.
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