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The Sustainability of House Price Trends in the Czech Republic

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  • Martin Lux
  • Petr Sunega
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    Abstract

    On the background of current global mortgage crisis the article discusses the housing market theory and particularly the methods and indicators used for the evaluation of long-term sustainability of house price trends. The authors provide the time series of such indicators for selected OECD countries, critically examine the past research studies evaluating pre-crisis house price development and argue that house price falls present in many developed countries are more the causes than the consequences of mortgage crisis. The change in house price trends in 2007 in many developed countries could be thus interpreted as the result of the previous record house price growth, often labeled as a price bubble. In view of this hypothesis the authors try to assess the sustainability of house price development in the Czech Republic, using several indicators, error correction models and different data sources. The methods for construction of reliable house price indices are also discussed here. The results show that house prices in the Czech Republic could be above their "equilibrium" levels at the end of 2007 but this deviation was far lower than in countries like UK, Spain, Netherlands or Ireland.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by University of Economics, Prague in its journal Politická ekonomie.

    Volume (Year): 2010 (2010)
    Issue (Month): 2 ()
    Pages: 225-252

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    Handle: RePEc:prg:jnlpol:v:2010:y:2010:i:2:id:728:p:225-252

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    Related research

    Keywords: transition economies; housing market; house prices; house price indices; asset pricing;

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    References

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    1. Brent W. Ambrose & Hugh O. Nourse, 1993. "Factors Influencing Capitalization Rates," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 8(2), pages 221-238.
    2. John Muellbauer & Gavin Cameron & John Muellbauer, 2006. "Was There A British House Price Bubble? Evidence from a Regional Panel," Economics Series Working Papers 276, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    3. Stephen Malpezzi, 1998. "A Simple Error Correction Model of House Prices," Wisconsin-Madison CULER working papers 98-11, University of Wisconsin Center for Urban Land Economic Research.
    4. Jorge Martínez Pagés & Luis Ángel Maza, 2003. "Analysis of house prices in Spain," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 0307, Banco de Espa�a.
    5. Jonathan McCarthy & Richard W. Peach, 2004. "Are home prices the next "bubble"?," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Dec, pages 1-17.
    6. Ray Barrell & Simon Kirby & Rebecca Riley, 2004. "The Current Position of UK House Prices," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 189(1), pages 57-60, July.
    7. Rosen, Sherwin, 1974. "Hedonic Prices and Implicit Markets: Product Differentiation in Pure Competition," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 82(1), pages 34-55, Jan.-Feb..
    8. Meen, Geoffrey, 2002. "The Time-Series Behavior of House Prices: A Transatlantic Divide?," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 1-23, March.
    9. Paul S. Mills & John Kiff, 2007. "Money for Nothing and Checks for Free: Recent Developments in U.S. Subprime Mortgage Markets," IMF Working Papers 07/188, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Granger, C. W. J., 1981. "Some properties of time series data and their use in econometric model specification," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 121-130, May.
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