Bounds on Counterfactual Distributions Under Semi-Monotonicity Constraints
Abstract
This paper explores semi-monotonicity constraints in the distribution of potential outcomes, first, conditional on an instrument, and second, in terms of the response function. The imposed assumptions are strictly weaker than traditional instrumental variables assumptions and can be gainfully employed to bound the counterfactual distributions, even though point identification is only achieved in special cases. The bounds have a simple analytical form and thus have much practical relevance in all instances when strong exogeneity assumptions cannot be credibly invoked. The bounding strategy is illustrated in a simulated data example and applied to the effect of education on smoking.Download Info
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.Bibliographic Info
Paper provided by University of Zurich, Socioeconomic Institute in its series Working Papers with number 0920.Length: 38 pages
Date of creation: Dec 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:soz:wpaper:0920
Contact details of provider:
Postal: Blümlisalpstrasse 10, CH-8006 Zürich
Phone: +41-1-634 22 05
Fax: +41-1-634 49 07
Email:
Web page: http://www.soi.uzh.ch/
More information through EDIRC
Related research
Keywords: nonparametric bounds; treatment effects; causality; endogeneity; instrumental variables; policy evaluation;Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
- C21 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models
- C25 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2010-01-16 (All new papers)
- NEP-ECM-2010-01-16 (Econometrics)
References
References listed on IDEASPlease report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- repec:att:wimass:8909 is not listed on IDEAS
- Donald W.K. Andrews & Patrik Guggenberger, 2007.
"Validity of Subsampling and "Plug-in Asymptotic" Inference for Parameters Defined by Moment Inequalities,"
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
1620, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Andrews, Donald W.K. & Guggenberger, Patrik, 2009. "Validity Of Subsampling And “Plug-In Asymptotic” Inference For Parameters Defined By Moment Inequalities," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(03), pages 669-709, June.
- Janet Currie & Enrico Moretti, 2003. "Mother'S Education And The Intergenerational Transmission Of Human Capital: Evidence From College Openings," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 118(4), pages 1495-1532, November.
- Elie Tamer, 2003. "Incomplete Simultaneous Discrete Response Model with Multiple Equilibria," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 70(1), pages 147-165, January.
- Brent Kreider & Steven C. Hill, 2009.
"Partially Identifying Treatment Effects with an Application to Covering the Uninsured,"
Journal of Human Resources,
University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 44(2).
- Kreider, Brent & Hill, Steven C., 2005. "Partially Identifying Treatment Effects with an Application to Covering the Uninsured," Staff General Research Papers 12296, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
- Libertad González, 2003.
"Nonparametric bounds on the returns to language skills,"
Economics Working Papers
714, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
- Libertad González, 2005. "Nonparametric bounds on the returns to language skills," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(6), pages 771-795.
- Gonzalez, Libertad, 2004. "Nonparametric Bounds on the Returns to Language Skills," IZA Discussion Papers 1098, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
- Cunha, Flavio & Heckman, James J. & Navarro, Salvador, 2007.
"The Identification and Economic Content of Ordered Choice Models with Stochastic Thresholds,"
IZA Discussion Papers
2940, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
- Flavio Cunha & James J. Heckman & Salvador Navarro, 2007. "The Identification And Economic Content Of Ordered Choice Models With Stochastic Thresholds," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 48(4), pages 1273-1309, November.
- Flavio Cunha & James J. Heckman & Salvador Navarro, 2007. "The Identification and Economic Content of Ordered Choice Models with Stochastic Thresholds," NBER Technical Working Papers 0340, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Stefan Boes, 2009. "Partial Identification of Discrete Counterfactual Distributions with Sequential Update of Information," Working Papers 0918, University of Zurich, Socioeconomic Institute.
- Charles F. Manski & Elie Tamer, 2002. "Inference on Regressions with Interval Data on a Regressor or Outcome," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(2), pages 519-546, March.
- Guggenberger, Patrik & Hahn, Jinyong & Kim, Kyooil, 2008. "Specification testing under moment inequalities," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 99(2), pages 375-378, May.
- Blundell, Richard William & Gosling, Amanda & Ichimura, Hidehiko & Meghir, Costas, 2004.
"Changes in the Distribution of Male and Female Wages Accounting for Employment Composition Using Bounds,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
4705, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Richard Blundell & Amanda Gosling & Hidehiko Ichimura & Costas Meghir, 2007. "Changes in the Distribution of Male and Female Wages Accounting for Employment Composition Using Bounds," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 75(2), pages 323-363, 03.
- Richard Blundell & Amanda Gosling & Hidehiko Ichimura & Costas Meghir, 2006. "Changes in the Distribution of Male and Female Wages Accounting for Employment Composition Using Bounds," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-420, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
- Richard Blundell & Amanda Gosling & Hidehiko Ichimura & Costas Meghir, 2004. "Changes in the distribution of male and female wages accounting for employment composition using bounds," IFS Working Papers W04/25, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
- Blundell, Richard & Gosling, Amanda & Ichimura, Hidehiko & Meghir, Costas, 2004. "Changes in the Distribution of Male and Female Wages Accounting for Employment Composition Using Bounds," IZA Discussion Papers 1350, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
- Grimard, Franque & Parent, Daniel, 2007.
"Education and smoking: Were Vietnam war draft avoiders also more likely to avoid smoking?,"
Journal of Health Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 896-926, September.
- Franque Grimard & Daniel Parent, 2006. "Education And Smoking: Were Vietnam War Draft Avoiders Also More Likely To Avoid Smoking?," Departmental Working Papers 2006-05, McGill University, Department of Economics.
- Franque Grimard & Daniel Parent, 2003. "Education and Smoking: Were Vietnam War Draft Avoiders Also More Likely to Avoid Smoking?," CIRANO Working Papers 2003s-44, CIRANO.
- Franque Grimard & Daniel Parent, 2003. "Education and Smoking: Were Vietnam War Draft Avoiders Also More Likely to Avoid Smoking?," Cahiers de recherche 0328, CIRPEE.
- Jorg Stoye, 2009.
"More on Confidence Intervals for Partially Identified Parameters,"
Econometrica,
Econometric Society, vol. 77(4), pages 1299-1315, 07.
- Jörg Stoye, 2008. "More on confidence intervals for partially identified parameters," CeMMAP working papers CWP11/08, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
- Andrew Chesher, 2010.
"Instrumental Variable Models for Discrete Outcomes,"
Econometrica,
Econometric Society, vol. 78(2), pages 575-601, 03.
- Andrew Chesher, 2008. "Instrumental variable models for discrete outcomes," CeMMAP working papers CWP30/08, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
- Kenkel, D.S., 1988.
"Health Behavior, Health Knowledge, And Schooling,"
Papers
10-88-3, Pennsylvania State - Department of Economics.
- Kenkel, Donald S, 1991. "Health Behavior, Health Knowledge, and Schooling," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(2), pages 287-305, April.
- Farrell, Phillip & Fuchs, Victor R. & Fuchs, Victor R., 1982. "Schooling and health : The cigarette connection," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 1(3), pages 217-230, December.
- Manski, Charles F, 1990.
"Nonparametric Bounds on Treatment Effects,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 80(2), pages 319-23, May.
- Charles F. Manski & John V. Pepper, 1998.
"Monotone Instrumental Variables with an Application to the Returns to Schooling,"
NBER Technical Working Papers
0224, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Charles F. Manski & John V. Pepper, 2000. "Monotone Instrumental Variables, with an Application to the Returns to Schooling," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(4), pages 997-1012, July.
- Charles F. Manski & John V. Pepper, 1998. "Monotone Instrumental Variables: With an Application to the Returns to Schooling," Virginia Economics Online Papers 308, University of Virginia, Department of Economics.
- Donald Kenkel & Dean Lillard & Alan Mathios, 2006.
"The Roles of High School Completion and GED Receipt in Smoking and Obesity,"
Journal of Labor Economics,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 24(3), pages 635-660, July.
- Donald S. Kenkel & Dean R. Lillard & Alan D. Mathios, 2006. "The Roles of High School Completion and GED Receipt in Smoking and Obesity," NBER Working Papers 11990, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Jay Bhattacharya & Azeem M. Shaikh & Edward Vytlacil, 2008. "Treatment Effect Bounds under Monotonicity Assumptions: An Application to Swan-Ganz Catheterization," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(2), pages 351-56, May.
- Andrew M Jones & John Wildman, 2005. "Disentangling the relationship between health and income," Health, Econometrics and Data Group (HEDG) Working Papers 05/07, HEDG, c/o Department of Economics, University of York.
- Guido W. Imbens & Charles F. Manski, 2004.
"Confidence Intervals for Partially Identified Parameters,"
Econometrica,
Econometric Society, vol. 72(6), pages 1845-1857, November.
- Guido Imbens & Charles F. Manski, 2003. "Confidence intervals for partially identified parameters," CeMMAP working papers CWP09/03, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
- Grossman, Michael, 1972. "On the Concept of Health Capital and the Demand for Health," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 80(2), pages 223-55, March-Apr.
- Azeem Shaikh & Edward Vytlacil, 2005. "Threshold Crossing Models and Bounds on Treatment Effects: A Nonparametric Analysis," NBER Technical Working Papers 0307, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Okumura, Tsunao & Usui, Emiko, 2010.
"Concave-Monotone Treatment Response and Monotone Treatment Selection: With an Application to the Returns to Schooling,"
PIE/CIS Discussion Paper
475, Center for Intergenerational Studies, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
- Okumura, Tsunao & Usui, Emiko, 2010. "Concave-Monotone Treatment Response and Monotone Treatment Selection: With an Application to the Returns to Schooling," IZA Discussion Papers 4986, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
- Victor Chernozhukov & Han Hong & Elie Tamer, 2007. "Estimation and Confidence Regions for Parameter Sets in Econometric Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 75(5), pages 1243-1284, 09.
- Kreider, Brent & Pepper, John V., 2007.
"Disability and Employment: Reevaluating the Evidence in Light of Reporting Errors,"
Journal of the American Statistical Association,
American Statistical Association, vol. 102, pages 432-441, June.
- Kreider, Brent & Pepper, John V., 2003. "Disability and Employment: Reevaluating the Evidence in Light of Reporting Errors," Staff General Research Papers 10229, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
- de Walque, Damien, 2007. "Does education affect smoking behaviors?: Evidence using the Vietnam draft as an instrument for college education," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 877-895, September.
- Rosenzweig, Mark R, 1995. "Why Are There Returns to Schooling?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(2), pages 153-58, May.
- Michael Gerfin & Martin Schellhorn, 2006.
"Nonparametric bounds on the effect of deductibles in health care insurance on doctor visits - Swiss evidence,"
Health Economics,
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(9), pages 1011-1020.
- Gerfin, Michael & Schellhorn, Martin, 2005. "Nonparametric Bounds on the Effect of Deductibles in Health Care Insurance on Doctor Visits – Swiss Evidence," IZA Discussion Papers 1616, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
- Monique de Haan, 2011. "The Effect of Parents’ Schooling on Child’s Schooling: A Nonparametric Bounds Analysis," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 29(4), pages 859 - 892.
- Adam Rosen, 2006.
"Confidence sets for partially identified parameters that satisfy a finite number of moment inequalities,"
CeMMAP working papers
CWP25/06, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
- Rosen, Adam M., 2008. "Confidence sets for partially identified parameters that satisfy a finite number of moment inequalities," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 146(1), pages 107-117, September.
- Joseph P. Romano & Azeem M. Shaikh, 2010. "Inference for the Identified Set in Partially Identified Econometric Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 78(1), pages 169-211, 01.
Citations
Lists
This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.Statistics
Access and download statisticsCorrections
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:soz:wpaper:0920For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Marita Kieser).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

