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Bounds on Counterfactual Distributions Under Semi-Monotonicity Constraints

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  • Stefan Boes

    ()
    (Socioeconomic Institute, University of Zurich)

Abstract

This paper explores semi-monotonicity constraints in the distribution of potential outcomes, first, conditional on an instrument, and second, in terms of the response function. The imposed assumptions are strictly weaker than traditional instrumental variables assumptions and can be gainfully employed to bound the counterfactual distributions, even though point identification is only achieved in special cases. The bounds have a simple analytical form and thus have much practical relevance in all instances when strong exogeneity assumptions cannot be credibly invoked. The bounding strategy is illustrated in a simulated data example and applied to the effect of education on smoking.

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File URL: http://www.soi.uzh.ch/research/wp/2009/wp0920.pdf
File Function: first version, 2009
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Socioeconomic Institute - University of Zurich in its series SOI - Working Papers with number 0920.

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Length: 38 pages
Date of creation: Dec 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:soz:wpaper:0920

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Keywords: nonparametric bounds; treatment effects; causality; endogeneity; instrumental variables; policy evaluation;

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