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Mortgage arrears in Europe: The impact of monetary and macroprudential policies

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  • Dr. Petra Gerlach
  • Seán Lyons

Abstract

Mortgage arrears arise if a household faces affordability problems and/or is in negative equity. Because widespread arrears pose a risk to the stability of banks and limit households' future access to credit, a crucial question is how monetary or macroprudential policies influence their incidence. We use a European household data set to analyse what drives arrears and find that affordability problems, such as unemployment, low income and high mortgage payments, matter, which suggests that monetary policy has an impact. Households facing the dual trigger of affordability problems and negative equity are more likely to go into longer-term arrears; macroprudential regulation preventing high loan-to-value (LTV) ratios can thus also have an impact.

Suggested Citation

  • Dr. Petra Gerlach & Seán Lyons, 2015. "Mortgage arrears in Europe: The impact of monetary and macroprudential policies," Working Papers 2015-05, Swiss National Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:snb:snbwpa:2015-05
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    File URL: https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/research/working-papers/2015/working_paper_2015_05
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    5. David ARISTEI & Manuela Gallo, 2012. "The Drivers of Household Over-Indebtedness and Delinquency on Mortgage Loans: Evidence from Italian Microdata," Quaderni del Dipartimento di Economia, Finanza e Statistica 105/2012, Università di Perugia, Dipartimento Economia.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Andrew Linn & Ronan C. Lyons, 2020. "Three Triggers? Negative Equity, Income Shocks and Institutions as Determinants of Mortgage Default," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 61(4), pages 549-575, November.
    2. Mitrašević Mirela, 2021. "The Role of Macroprudential Policy in Bank Housing Loans Portfolio Quality Assurance," Economic Themes, Sciendo, vol. 59(2), pages 281-296, June.
    3. Andrew Linn & Ronan C Lyons, 2018. "The Triple Trigger? Negative Equity, Income Shocks and Institutions as Determinants of Mortgage Default," Trinity Economics Papers tep0718, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
    4. Stanga, Irina & Vlahu, Razvan & de Haan, Jakob, 2020. "Mortgage arrears, regulation and institutions: Cross-country evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).
    5. Silvia Del Prete & Cristina Demma & Paola Rossi, 2017. "From few to many: product differentiation in the Italian mortgage market," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 383, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    6. Ranisavljević Duško & Hadžić Miroljub, 2016. "Realistic Evaluation of the Ratio: Loan-To-value – The Key to Minimising the Credit Risk," Economic Themes, Sciendo, vol. 54(3), pages 449-468, September.
    7. Aller, Carlos & Grant, Charles, 2018. "The effect of the financial crisis on default by Spanish households," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 39-52.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Arrears; negative equity; monetary policy; loan-to-value ratios;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D14 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Household Saving; Personal Finance
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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