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Estimating Output Gap and Potential Output for Russia and Its Uselfulness by Forecasting Inflation

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  • Kloudová Dana

    (University of Economics, Prague)

Abstract

This paper deals with an estimation of output gap and potential output for Russian´s economy. Three methods of estimation have been used for estimating these two unobservable variables: Hodrick-Prescott filter, production function and SVAR model. All methods of estimation showed very similar course, although an obtained values were not identical. Then obtained values of the output gap were used to analyse the ability of output gap to forecast inflation. Two simple gap models were used for this purpose. The results showed that output gap could be used as useful indicator if inflation, according to all methods of estimation output gap.

Suggested Citation

  • Kloudová Dana, 2014. "Estimating Output Gap and Potential Output for Russia and Its Uselfulness by Forecasting Inflation," Proceedings of Economics and Finance Conferences 0402134, International Institute of Social and Economic Sciences.
    • Handle: RePEc:sek:iefpro:0402134
    as

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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    output gap; HP filter; SVAR model; production function; Kalman filter; inflation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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