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A Quantitative Analysis of China’s Structural Transformation

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Author Info
Robert Dekle
Guillaume Vandenbroucke

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Abstract

Between 1978 and 2003 the Chinese economy experienced a remarkable 5.7 percent annual growth of GDP per labor. At the same time, there has been a noticeable transformation of the economy: the share of workers in agriculture decreased from over 70 percent to less than 50 percent. We distinguish three sectors: private agriculture and nonagriculture and public nonagriculture. A growth accounting exercise reveals that the main source of growth was TFP in the private nonagricultural sector. The reallocation of labor from agriculture to nonagriculture accounted for 1.9 percent out of the 5.7 percent growth in output per labor. The reallocation of labor from the public to the private sector also accounted for a significant part of growth in the 1996- 2003 period. We calibrate a general equilibrium model where the driving forces are public investment and employment, as well as sectorial TFP derived from our growth accounting exercise. The model tracks the historical employment share of agriculture and the labor productivities of all three sectors quite well.

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File URL: http://www.usc.edu/dept/LAS/economics/IEPR/Working%20Papers/IEPR_06.51_%5BDekle,Vandenbroucke%5D.pdf
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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Institute of Economic Policy Research (IEPR) in its series IEPR Working Papers with number 06.51.

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Length: 37 pages
Date of creation: May 2006
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Handle: RePEc:scp:wpaper:06-51

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Keywords: China; structural transformation; growth;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
O41 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models
O53 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Asia including Middle East

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Zhang, Linxiu & Huang, Jikun & Rozelle, Scott, 2002. "Employment, emerging labor markets, and the role of education in rural China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 13(2-3), pages 313-328. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Dale W. Jorgenson & Koji Nomura, 2005. "The Industry Origins of Japanese Economic Growth," NBER Working Papers 11800, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Chow, Gregory C, 1993. "Capital Formation and Economic Growth in China," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 108(3), pages 809-42, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Kui-Wai Li, 2003. "China's Capital and Productivity Measurement Using Financial Resources," Working Papers 851, Economic Growth Center, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
  5. McMillan, John & Whalley, John & Zhu, Lijing, 1989. "The Impact of China's Economic Reforms on Agricultural Productivity Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(4), pages 781-807, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Jorgenson, Dale W. & Nomura, Koji, 2005. "The industry origins of Japanese economic growth," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 482-542, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Fan, Shenggen & Zhang, Xiaobo, 2002. "Production and Productivity Growth in Chinese Agriculture: New National and Regional Measures," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 50(4), pages 819-38, July.
  8. Zhang, Linxiu & Huang, Jikun & Rozelle, Scott, 2002. "Employment, Emerging Labor Markets, And The Role Of Education In Rural China," Working Papers 11969, University of California, Davis, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics. [Downloadable!]
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Verma, Rubina, 2008. "The Service Sector Revolution in India: A Quantitative Analysis," Working Papers RP2008/72, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER). [Downloadable!]
  2. Badibanga, Thaddee & Diao, Xinshen & Roe, Terry & Somwaru, Agapi, 2008. "Dynamics of Structural Transformation: Understanding the Key Factors That Drive Innovative Activities in Selected Asian and African Countries," Bulletins 43890, University of Minnesota, Economic Development Center. [Downloadable!]
  3. Song, Zheng Michael & Storesletten, Kjetil & Zilibotti, Fabrizio, 2009. "Growing like China," CEPR Discussion Papers 7149, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Ippei Fujiwara & Keisuke Otsu & Masashi Saito, 2008. "The Global Impact of Chinese Growth," IMES Discussion Paper Series 08-E-22, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan. [Downloadable!]
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