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Skewed policy responses and IT in Latin America

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  • Marco Vega

    ()
    (Economics LSE and Central Bank of Peru)

Abstract

Estimation of forward-looking interest rate rules is ubiquitous in the context of developed economy central banks. This paper considers the five countries in Latin America that have adopted the Inflation Targeting framework and performs estimations of forward-looking rules via i) standard least-squares criteria and ii) quantile regressions. The estimated standard mean effects indicate that Brazil, Chile and Mexico are strongly forward-looking for horizons of a year and more. The estimated quantile effects suggest that policy makers in Brazil, Chile and Mexico are likely to have faced more upside than downside risks to their one-year ahead inflation forecasts when setting their policies

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File URL: http://repec.org/sce2006/up.12714.1138724598.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Society for Computational Economics in its series Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 with number 61.

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Date of creation: 04 Jul 2006
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Handle: RePEc:sce:scecfa:61

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  1. Clarida, Richard & Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1998. "Monetary policy rules in practice Some international evidence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(6), pages 1033-1067, June.
  2. Roger Koenker & Kevin F. Hallock, 2001. "Quantile Regression," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(4), pages 143-156, Fall.
  3. Orphanides, Athanasios, 2001. "Monetary policy rules, macroeconomic stability and inflation: a view from the trenches," Working Paper Series 0115, European Central Bank.
  4. Oscar Landerretche & Felipe Morandé & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbe, 1999. "Inflation Targets and Stabilization in Chile," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 55, Central Bank of Chile.
  5. Jansson, Per & Vredin, Anders, 2003. "Forecast-Based Monetary Policy: The Case of Sweden," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(3), pages 349-80, Winter.
  6. Kenneth N. Kuttner, 2004. "The role of policy rules in inflation targeting," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 89-112.
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