Demographic Uncertainty and Labour Market Imperfections in Small Open Economy
AbstractThis paper extends Gertler's (1999) tractable overlapping generations model by allowing for imperfect labour markets and distortionary taxation. Furthermore, we allow for stochastic variation in demographic structure. The model is then used to study demographic change in a small open economy of Finland. The simulations highlight a key role played by labour market imperfections in determining a fiscal burden of ageing in defined benefit pensions systems. Higher labour market imperfections lead into considerably stronger responses of labour supply and taxes on ageing. Thus, imperfections magnify the problem associated with fiscal sustainability in ageing society. Higher labour market imperfections lead into considerably stronger responses of labour supply and taxes on ageing. Thus, imperfections magnify the problem associated with fiscal sustainability in ageing society. Stochastic simulations suggest that lengthening of working time has rather minor impact on alleviating the fiscal burden of ageing. Only a small fraction of the stochastic variation in endogenously determined contribution rate is explained by the stochastic variation in the lenght of working time. Variation in fertility rate is clearly more important.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Society for Computational Economics in its series Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 with number 227.
Date of creation: 04 Jul 2006
Date of revision:
Demographics; Uncertainty; DSGE; Labour Markets;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
- E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
- H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2006-07-15 (All new papers)
- NEP-DGE-2006-07-16 (Dynamic General Equilibrium)
- NEP-MAC-2006-07-18 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-PBE-2006-07-18 (Public Economics)
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