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Demographic Uncertainty and Labour Market Imperfections in Small Open Economy

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  • Juha Kilponen

    (Bank of Finland)

  • Helvi Kinnunen

    (Bank of Finland)

  • Antti Ripatti

    (Bank of Finland)

Abstract

This paper extends Gertler's (1999) tractable overlapping generations model by allowing for imperfect labour markets and distortionary taxation. Furthermore, we allow for stochastic variation in demographic structure. The model is then used to study demographic change in a small open economy of Finland. The simulations highlight a key role played by labour market imperfections in determining a fiscal burden of ageing in defined benefit pensions systems. Higher labour market imperfections lead into considerably stronger responses of labour supply and taxes on ageing. Thus, imperfections magnify the problem associated with fiscal sustainability in ageing society. Higher labour market imperfections lead into considerably stronger responses of labour supply and taxes on ageing. Thus, imperfections magnify the problem associated with fiscal sustainability in ageing society. Stochastic simulations suggest that lengthening of working time has rather minor impact on alleviating the fiscal burden of ageing. Only a small fraction of the stochastic variation in endogenously determined contribution rate is explained by the stochastic variation in the lenght of working time. Variation in fertility rate is clearly more important.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Society for Computational Economics in its series Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 with number 227.

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Date of creation: 04 Jul 2006
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Handle: RePEc:sce:scecfa:227

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Keywords: Demographics; Uncertainty; DSGE; Labour Markets;

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References

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  1. Betts, Caroline & Devereux, Michael B., 2000. "Exchange rate dynamics in a model of pricing-to-market," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 215-244, February.
  2. Ripatti, Antti & Vilmunen, Jouko, 2001. "Declining labour share – Evidence of a change in underlying production technology?," Research Discussion Papers 10/2001, Bank of Finland.
  3. Dixit, Avinash K & Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1977. "Monopolistic Competition and Optimum Product Diversity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(3), pages 297-308, June.
  4. Robert Fenge & Martin Werding, 2003. "Ageing and Fiscal Imbalances Across Generations: Concepts of Measurement," CESifo Working Paper Series 842, CESifo Group Munich.
  5. Christian Keuschnigg & Mirela Keuschnigg, 2004. "Aging, Labor Markets and Pension Reform in Austria," University of St. Gallen Department of Economics working paper series 2004 2004-03, Department of Economics, University of St. Gallen.
  6. Gertler, Mark, 1999. "Government debt and social security in a life-cycle economy," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 61-110, June.
  7. Freystätter, Hanna, 2003. "Price setting behavior in an open economy and the determination of Finnish foreign trade prices," Scientific Monographs E:25/2003, Bank of Finland.
  8. Juha Kilponen & Torsten Santavirta, 2004. "Competition and Innovation - Microeconometric Evidence using Finnish Data," Research Reports 113, Government Institute for Economic Research Finland (VATT).
  9. Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501.
  10. Roger E.A. Farmer, 1989. "Rince Preferences," UCLA Economics Working Papers 547, UCLA Department of Economics.
  11. repec:fth:bfdipa:10/2001 is not listed on IDEAS
  12. Kilponen, Juha & Ripatti , Antti, 2006. "Labour and product market competition in a small open economy, Simulation results using a DGE model of the Finnish economy," Research Discussion Papers 5/2006, Bank of Finland.
  13. Betts, Caroline & Devereux, Michael B., 1996. "The exchange rate in a model of pricing-to-market," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(3-5), pages 1007-1021, April.
  14. Weil, Philippe, 1989. "Overlapping families of infinitely-lived agents," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 183-198, March.
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Cited by:
  1. Mourinho Félix, Ricardo & Almeida, Vanda & Castro, Gabriela, 2008. "Improving competition in the non-tradable goods and labour markets: the Portuguese case," MPRA Paper 13945, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. Fujiwara, Ippei & Teranishi, Yuki, 2008. "A dynamic new Keynesian life-cycle model: Societal aging, demographics, and monetary policy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(8), pages 2398-2427, August.
  3. Ripatti, Antti, 2008. "'A dynamic new Keynesian life-cycle model: Societal aging, demographics, and monetary policy' by Ippei Fujiwara and Yuki Teranishi. A comment," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(8), pages 2507-2511, August.

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