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Evaluating the effects of population ageing on long-term growth and pension system sustainability in Bulgaria through an overlapping generations model

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  • Kristina Karagyozova-Markova

Abstract

The article provides an overview of the simulations with a general equilibrium overlapping generations model, which is based on the theoretical setups, developed by Gertler and Grafenhofer et al. The model (BG-OLG) is calibrated for Bulgaria and evaluates the long-term effects of ageing on economic growth and public finance sustainability under different scenarios for the retirement age. On the basis of the model-based simulations, policy recommendations aimed at minimizing the macro-fiscal costs of population ageing are drawn.

Suggested Citation

  • Kristina Karagyozova-Markova, 2016. "Evaluating the effects of population ageing on long-term growth and pension system sustainability in Bulgaria through an overlapping generations model," Economic Thought journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 1, pages 59-78.
    • Handle: RePEc:bas:econth:y:2016:i:1:p:59-78
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Dominik Grafenhofer & Christian Jaag & Christian Keuschnigg & Mirela Keuschnigg, 2005. "Probabilistic Aging," University of St. Gallen Department of Economics working paper series 2005 2005-08, Department of Economics, University of St. Gallen.
    2. Gertler, Mark, 1999. "Government debt and social security in a life-cycle economy," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 61-110, June.
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making
    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
    • J14 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of the Elderly; Economics of the Handicapped; Non-Labor Market Discrimination
    • J26 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Retirement; Retirement Policies

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