IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/wbk/wbrwps/6774.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Macroeconomic and fiscal implications of population aging in Bulgaria

Author

Listed:
  • Onder, Harun
  • Pestieau, Pierre
  • Ley, Eduardo

Abstract

Bulgaria is in the midst of a serious demographic transition that will shrink its population at one of the highest rates in the world within the next few decades. This study analyzes the macroeconomic and fiscal implications of this demographic transition by using a long-term model, which integrates the demographic projections with social security, fiscal and real economy dimensions in a consistent manner. The simulations suggest that, even under fairly optimistic assumptions, Bulgaria's demographic transition will exert significant fiscal pressures and depress the economic growth in the medium and long term. However, the results also demonstrate that the Government of Bulgaria can play a significant role in mitigating some of these effects. Policies that induce higher labor force participation, promote productivity and technological improvement, and provide better education outcomes are found to counteract the negative consequences of the demographic shift.

Suggested Citation

  • Onder, Harun & Pestieau, Pierre & Ley, Eduardo, 2014. "Macroeconomic and fiscal implications of population aging in Bulgaria," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6774, The World Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:6774
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/WDSContentServer/WDSP/IB/2014/02/10/000158349_20140210140936/Rendered/PDF/WPS6774.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. World Bank, 2015. "Bulgaria Health Financing," World Bank Publications - Reports 22964, The World Bank Group.
    2. World Bank Group, 2015. "Russian Economic Report, September 2015," World Bank Publications - Reports 22714, The World Bank Group.
    3. Kristina Karagyozova-Markova, 2016. "Evaluating the effects of population ageing on long-term growth and pension system sustainability in Bulgaria through an overlapping generations model," Economic Thought journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 1, pages 59-78.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:6774. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Roula I. Yazigi (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/dvewbus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.