Forecasting the South African Economy: A DSGE-VAR Approach
AbstractThis paper develops an estimable hybrid model that combines the micro-founded DSGE model with the flexibility of the theoretical VAR model. The model is estimated via the maximum likelihood technique based on quarterly data on real Gross National Product (GNP), consumption, investment and hours worked, for the South African economy, over the period of 1970:1 to 2000:4. Based on a recursive estimation using the Kalman filter algorithm, the out-of-sample forecasts from the hybrid model are then compared with the forecasts generated from the Classical and Bayesian variants of the VAR for the period 2001:1-2005:4. The results indicate that, in general, the estimated hybrid DSGE model outperforms the Classical VAR, but not the Bayesian VARs in terms of out-of-sample forecasting performances.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Economic Research Southern Africa in its series Working Papers with number 51.
Length: 22 pages
Date of creation: Jul 2007
Date of revision:
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More information through EDIRC
DSGE Model; VAR and BVAR Model; Forecast Accuracy; DSGE Forecasts; VAR Forecasts; BVAR Forecasts.;
Other versions of this item:
- Guangling (Dave) Liu & Rangan Gupta & Eric Schaling, 2007. "Forecasting the South African Economy: A DSGE-VAR Approach," Working Papers 200724, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
- Liu, G. & Gupta, R. & Schaling, E., 2008. "Forecasting the South African Economy: A DSGE-VAR Approach," Discussion Paper 2008-32, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
- E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
- E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
- E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
- E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
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