IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/rug/rugwps/04-262.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Why promotion strategies based on market basket analysis do not work

Author

Listed:
  • B. VINDEVOGEL
  • D. VAN DEN POEL
  • G. WETS

Abstract

In text books as well as in the business literature, market basket analysis is often promoted as a means to obtain product associations to base a retailer’s promotion strategy on. They argue that associated products with a high lift/interest can be promoted effectively by only discounting just one of the two products. Implicitly, they argue that market basket analysis automatically identifies complements. In this research, we show that this implicit assumption does not hold. Our empirical analysis reveals that market basket analysis identifies as many substitutes as complements. Therefore, market basket analysis cannot be used to build a promotion expert system for retailers. Instead, we advice to base the promotion strategy on cross-price elasticities. We conduct this research using scanner data of a large European retailer. Multivariate time-series techniques are used to identify both short-run as well as long-run (persistent) effects of promotions.

Suggested Citation

  • B. Vindevogel & D. Van Den Poel & G. Wets, 2004. "Why promotion strategies based on market basket analysis do not work," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 04/262, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    • Handle: RePEc:rug:rugwps:04/262
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://wps-feb.ugent.be/Papers/wp_04_262.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Evans, Lewis & Wells, Graeme, 1983. "An alternative approach to simulating var models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 23-29.
    2. G. Dekimpe, Marnik & Hanssens, Dominique M. & Silva-Risso, Jorge M., 1998. "Long-run effects of price promotions in scanner markets," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 89(1-2), pages 269-291, November.
    3. David J. Hand & Heikki Mannila & Padhraic Smyth, 2001. "Principles of Data Mining," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 026208290x, December.
    4. Magid M. Abraham & Leonard M. Lodish, 1993. "An Implemented System for Improving Promotion Productivity Using Store Scanner Data," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 12(3), pages 248-269.
    5. Marnik G. Dekimpe & Dominique M. Hanssens, 1995. "Empirical Generalizations About Market Evolution and Stationarity," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 14(3_supplem), pages 109-121.
    6. Dolado, Juan J & Jenkinson, Tim & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simon, 1990. "Cointegration and Unit Roots," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 4(3), pages 249-273.
    7. Jean-Pierre Dubé, 2004. "Multiple Discreteness and Product Differentiation: Demand for Carbonated Soft Drinks," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 23(1), pages 66-81, September.
    8. D. VAN DEN POEL & Jan J. DE SCHAMPHELAERE & G. WETS, 2003. "Direct and Indirect Effects of Retail Promotions," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 03/202, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Leeflang, Peter S.H. & Parreño Selva, Josefa & Van Dijk, Albert & Wittink, Dick R., 2008. "Decomposing the sales promotion bump accounting for cross-category effects," International Journal of Research in Marketing, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 201-214.
    2. B. Vindevogel & D. Van Den Poel & G. Wets, 2004. "Dynamic cross-sales effects of price promotions: Empirical generalizations," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 04/276, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. B. Vindevogel & D. Van Den Poel & G. Wets, 2004. "Dynamic cross-sales effects of price promotions: Empirical generalizations," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 04/276, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    2. Vincent R. Nijs & Marnik G. Dekimpe & Jan-Benedict E.M. Steenkamps & Dominique M. Hanssens, 2001. "The Category-Demand Effects of Price Promotions," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 20(1), pages 1-22, September.
    3. Dekimpe, M.G. & Hanssens, D.M., 2003. "Persistence Modeling for Assessing Marketing Strategy Performance," ERIM Report Series Research in Management ERS-2003-088-MKT, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus University Rotterdam.
    4. Zhang, Xiaolong & Burke, Gerard J., 2011. "Analysis of compound bullwhip effect causes," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 210(3), pages 514-526, May.
    5. Joseph, Joy, 2005. "Competitive Pricing Analysis in Mature & Evolving Markets A Time Series Approach," MPRA Paper 7685, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Suresh Divakar & Brian T. Ratchford & Venkatesh Shankar, 2005. "Practice Prize Article—: A Multichannel, Multiregion Sales Forecasting Model and Decision Support System for Consumer Packaged Goods," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 24(3), pages 334-350, July.
    7. Szymanowski, M.G., 2009. "Consumption-based learning about brand quality : Essays on how private labels share and borrow reputation," Other publications TiSEM b12825d8-5e21-4437-adda-b, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    8. Koen Pauwels & Shuba Srinivasan, 2004. "Who Benefits from Store Brand Entry?," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 23(3), pages 364-390, July.
    9. M.G. Dekimpe & D.M. Hanssens, 2005. "Persistence Models and Marketing Strategy," Review of Business and Economic Literature, KU Leuven, Faculty of Economics and Business (FEB), Review of Business and Economic Literature, vol. 0(5), pages 855-884.
    10. Horváth, C. & Franses, Ph.H.B.F., 2003. "Deriving dynamic marketing effectiveness from econometric time series models," ERIM Report Series Research in Management ERS-2003-079-MKT, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus University Rotterdam.
    11. G. Dekimpe, Marnik & Hanssens, Dominique M. & Silva-Risso, Jorge M., 1998. "Long-run effects of price promotions in scanner markets," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 89(1-2), pages 269-291, November.
    12. Srinivasan, S. & Pauwels, K.H. & Hanssens, D.M. & Dekimpe, M.G., 2002. "Do Promotions Benefit Manufacturers, Retailers or Both?," ERIM Report Series Research in Management ERS-2002-21-MKT, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus University Rotterdam.
    13. Yap, Wei Yim & Lam, Jasmine S.L., 2006. "Competition dynamics between container ports in East Asia," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 35-51, January.
    14. Putsis, William Jr. & Dhar, Ravi, 2001. "An empirical analysis of the determinants of category expenditure," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 52(3), pages 277-291, June.
    15. Matthew Gentzkow, 2007. "Valuing New Goods in a Model with Complementarity: Online Newspapers," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(3), pages 713-744, June.
    16. Liran Einav & Ephraim Leibtag & Aviv Nevo, 2010. "Recording discrepancies in Nielsen Homescan data: Are they present and do they matter?," Quantitative Marketing and Economics (QME), Springer, vol. 8(2), pages 207-239, June.
    17. Sridhar, Shrihari & Naik, Prasad A. & Kelkar, Ajay, 2017. "Metrics unreliability and marketing overspending," International Journal of Research in Marketing, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 761-779.
    18. Webber, A., 1999. "Newton's Gravity Law and Import Prices in the Asia Pacific," Economics Working Papers WP99-12, School of Economics, University of Wollongong, NSW, Australia.
    19. Gómez-Puig, Marta & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simón, 2014. "Causality and contagion in EMU sovereign debt markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 12-27.
    20. Kenneth F. Wallis & Jan P. A. M. Jacobs, 2005. "Comparing SVARs and SEMs: two models of the UK economy," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(2), pages 209-228.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Market basket analysis; cross-price elasticities; promotion strategy; multivariate time-series techniques; retailing;
    All these keywords.

    Lists

    This item is featured on the following reading lists, Wikipedia, or ReplicationWiki pages:
    1. Loss leader in Wikipedia English
    2. Hàng bán câu khách in Wikipedia Vietnamese
    3. Produit d'appel in Wikipedia French

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rug:rugwps:04/262. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Nathalie Verhaeghe (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ferugbe.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.