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A methodology to estimate security of supply in electricity generation: results for Germany until 2030 given a high level of intermittent electricity feed-in

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  • Paulus, Moritz

    ()
    (Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln)

  • Grave, Katharina

    ()
    (Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln)

  • Lindenberger, Dietmar

    ()
    (Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln)

Abstract

In this paper, we develop a methodology for deriving a consistent measure for supply adequacy in the power generation sector. We especially consider the secured generation capacity of intermittent renewable energy sources such as wind. Availability of conventional power plants is estimated through stochastic convolution of unscheduled non-usabilities. We employ our methodology to measure supply security in Germany until 2030. A detailed market analysis of power plants that are currently being built or planned provides support to our analysis for the short term. For the long term, we rely on a large-scale dispatch and investment model of the European power sector to account for the embedding of the German electricity sector in the European market. We analyze two scenarios: one with prolongation of nuclear power plants and one with a nuclear phase-out. Our results show that, even though intermittent renewables only provide very limited secured generation capacity, security of electricity supply in Germany can be assured until 2015. In the long term, the need for backup capacity for renewable energy sources increases as well as the need for electricity imports.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln in its series EWI Working Papers with number 2011-10.

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Length: 26 pages
Date of creation: 28 Dec 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ris:ewikln:2011_010

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Keywords: Supply adequacy; integration of renewable energy sources; power generation; German power sector; secured generation capacity;

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References

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  1. Roques, F.A., 2008. "Market Design for Generation Adequacy: Healing Causes rather than Symptoms," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0821, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  2. Nicolosi, Marco, 2010. "Wind power integration and power system flexibility-An empirical analysis of extreme events in Germany under the new negative price regime," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(11), pages 7257-7268, November.
  3. Paulus, Moritz & Borggrefe, Frieder, 2011. "The potential of demand-side management in energy-intensive industries for electricity markets in Germany," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 432-441, February.
  4. Batlle, C. & Rodilla, P., 2010. "A critical assessment of the different approaches aimed to secure electricity generation supply," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(11), pages 7169-7179, November.
  5. Boccard, Nicolas, 2010. "Economic properties of wind power: A European assessment," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(7), pages 3232-3244, July.
  6. Weigt, Hannes, 2009. "Germany's wind energy: The potential for fossil capacity replacement and cost saving," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 86(10), pages 1857-1863, October.
  7. Finon, Dominique & Pignon, Virginie, 2008. "Electricity and long-term capacity adequacy: The quest for regulatory mechanism compatible with electricity market," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 143-158, September.
  8. MacCormack, John & Hollis, Aidan & Zareipour, Hamidreza & Rosehart, William, 2010. "The large-scale integration of wind generation: Impacts on price, reliability and dispatchable conventional suppliers," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(7), pages 3837-3846, July.
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