A methodology to estimate security of supply in electricity generation: results for Germany until 2030 given a high level of intermittent electricity feed-in
AbstractIn this paper, we develop a methodology for deriving a consistent measure for supply adequacy in the power generation sector. We especially consider the secured generation capacity of intermittent renewable energy sources such as wind. Availability of conventional power plants is estimated through stochastic convolution of unscheduled non-usabilities. We employ our methodology to measure supply security in Germany until 2030. A detailed market analysis of power plants that are currently being built or planned provides support to our analysis for the short term. For the long term, we rely on a large-scale dispatch and investment model of the European power sector to account for the embedding of the German electricity sector in the European market. We analyze two scenarios: one with prolongation of nuclear power plants and one with a nuclear phase-out. Our results show that, even though intermittent renewables only provide very limited secured generation capacity, security of electricity supply in Germany can be assured until 2015. In the long term, the need for backup capacity for renewable energy sources increases as well as the need for electricity imports.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln in its series EWI Working Papers with number 2011-10.
Length: 26 pages
Date of creation: 28 Dec 2011
Date of revision:
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Supply adequacy; integration of renewable energy sources; power generation; German power sector; secured generation capacity;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
- L94 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities - - - Electric Utilities
- Q21 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
- Q40 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - General
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2012-01-10 (All new papers)
- NEP-ENE-2012-01-10 (Energy Economics)
- NEP-EUR-2012-01-10 (Microeconomic European Issues)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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- Finon, Dominique & Pignon, Virginie, 2008. "Electricity and long-term capacity adequacy: The quest for regulatory mechanism compatible with electricity market," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 143-158, September.
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