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Analyse von Grenzkostenpreisen im Europaeischen Gasmarkt

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  • Lochner, Stefan

    ()
    (Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitt zu Koeln)

  • Dieckhoener, Caroline

    ()
    (Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitt zu Koeln)

Abstract

Der An- und Verkauf von Erdgas an Grosshandelsmaerkten wird in einem zunehmend liberalisierten Gasmarkt auch in Kontinentaleuropa weiter an Bedeutung gewinnen. Die Preise an diesen Maerkten bilden sich aus Angebot und Nachfrage; wie in jeder netzgebundenen Industrie kommt der Infrastruktur und ihrer Verfuegbarkeit dabei jedoch eine wichtige Rolle zu. Mit Hilfe des Ergasinfrastruktur- und Dispatchmodells Tiger werden in dieser Arbeit Grenzkostenpreise fuer ausgewaehlte europaeische Handelspunkte geschaetzt. Die Grundlage dafuer bildet ein most-likely Szenario fuer die Entwicklung des europaeischen Gasmarktes bis zum Jahr 2018. Die aktuell in der Realitaet zu beobachtende hohe Korrelation der europaeischen Boersenpreise fuer Erdgas untereinander kann dabei mit dem Modell nachvollzogen werden. Getrieben durch die Entwicklung von Angebot und Nachfrage zeigt sich jedoch, dass signifikant unterschiedliche Grenzkostenpreise in Nordwest- und Zentraleuropa in der naechsten Dekade temporaer auftreten koennen. Grund dafuer sind Infrastrukturengpaesse in Zeiten hoher Nachfrage.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln in its series EWI Working Papers with number 2008-5.

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Length: 15 pages
Date of creation: 02 Dec 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ris:ewikln:2008_005

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Keywords: Erdgas; Europaeischer Gasmarkt; Erdgaspreise; Modellierung;

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  1. Knut Einar Rosendahl & Eirik Lund Sagen, 2007. "The Global Natural Gas Market. Will transport cost reductions lead to lower prices?," Discussion Papers 523, Research Department of Statistics Norway.
  2. Neumann, Anne & Siliverstovs, Boriss, 2005. "Convergence of European Spot Market Prices for Natural Gas? A Real-Time Analysis of Market Integration using the Kalman Filter," Dresden Discussion Paper Series in Economics 05/05, Dresden University of Technology, Faculty of Business and Economics, Department of Economics.
  3. Robinson, Terry, 2007. "Have European gas prices converged?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 2347-2351, April.
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