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Estimating the long-run equilibrium relationship: The case of city-gate and residential natural gas prices

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  • Arano, Kathleen
  • Velikova, Marieta
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    Abstract

    This paper examines market cointegration of city-gate and residential natural gas prices. Cointegration of gas prices across different segments of the industry provides evidence that deregulation has resulted into a more integrated, competitive natural gas industry where gas prices converge into a long-run equilibrium. Our results indicate prices further down the distribution line, the final two points of consumption, are cointegrated for a majority of the US states post open access and retail unbundling, although we find little evidence of perfect market integration. The two price series likewise converge to the long-run equilibrium faster post open access and retail unbundling. Results relative to state level unbundling (choice programs) reveal mixed outcomes with a few states without retail unbundling exhibiting market integration while some states with full unbundling exhibiting non-cointegration.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Energy Economics.

    Volume (Year): 32 (2010)
    Issue (Month): 4 (July)
    Pages: 901-907

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:32:y:2010:i:4:p:901-907

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    Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/eneco

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    Keywords: Natural gas Regulation Cointegration;

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    1. Siliverstovs, Boriss & L'Hegaret, Guillaume & Neumann, Anne & von Hirschhausen, Christian, 2005. "International market integration for natural gas? A cointegration analysis of prices in Europe, North America and Japan," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 603-615, July.
    2. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    3. W. David Walls, 1994. "Price Convergence Across Natural Gas Fields and City Markets," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4), pages 37-48.
    4. Marlin King & Milan Cuc, 1996. "Price Convergence in North American Natural Gas Spot Markets," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2), pages 17-42.
    5. Anne Neumann & Boriss Siliverstovs & Christian von Hirschhausen, 2006. "Convergence of European spot market prices for natural gas? A real-time analysis of market integration using the Kalman Filter," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(11), pages 727-732.
    6. Arano, Kathleen G. & Blair, Benjamin F., 2008. "An ex-post welfare analysis of natural gas regulation in the industrial sector," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 789-806, May.
    7. Frank Asche, Petter Osmundsen, Ragnar Tveteras, 2001. "Market integration for natural gas in Europe," International Journal of Global Energy Issues, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 16(4), pages 300-312.
    8. Rodney Paul & Dragan Miljkovic & Viju Ipe, 2001. "Market integration in US gasoline markets," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(10), pages 1335-1340.
    9. Park, Haesun & Mjelde, James W. & Bessler, David A., 2008. "Price interactions and discovery among natural gas spot markets in North America," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 290-302, January.
    10. De Vany, Arthur & Walls, W. David, 1993. "Pipeline Access and Market Integration in the Natural Gas Industry: Evidence from Cointegration Tests," University of California Transportation Center, Working Papers qt8368m144, University of California Transportation Center.
    11. David A. Dickey & Dennis W. Jansen & Daniel L. Thornton, 1991. "A primer on cointegration with an application to money and income," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Mar, pages 58-78.
    12. John Cuddington & Zhongmin Wang, 2006. "Assessing the Degree of Spot Market Integration for U.S. Natural Gas: Evidence from Daily Price Data," Journal of Regulatory Economics, Springer, vol. 29(2), pages 195-210, 03.
    13. repec:fth:calaec:4-93 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Robinson, Terry, 2007. "Have European gas prices converged?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 2347-2351, April.
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