Monetary policy during Brazil´s Real Plan: estimating the Central Bank´s reaction function
AbstractThis paper uses a Threshold Autoregressive (TAR) model with exogenous variables to explain a change in regime in Brazilian nominal interest rates. By using an indicator of currency crises -which is chosen endogenously - the model tries to explain the difference in the dynamics of nominal interest rates during and out of a currency crises. The paper then compares the performance of the nonlinear model to a modified Taylor Rule adjusted to Brazilian interest rates, and shows that the former performs considerably better than the latter.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Department of Economics PUC-Rio (Brazil) in its series Textos para discussão with number 444.
Length: 17 pages
Date of creation: Sep 2001
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published in Revista Brasileira de Economia,v. 59, p. 61-79, 2005
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Other versions of this item:
- Maria José S. Salgado & Márcio G. P. Garcia & Marcelo C. Medeiros, 2005. "Monetary Policy During Brazil´s Real Plan: Estimating the Central Bank´s Reaction Function," Revista Brasileira de Economia, FGV/EPGE Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil), vol. 59(1), pages 61-80, January.
- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models
- C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
- C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
- E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
- E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2001-09-26 (All new papers)
- NEP-IFN-2001-09-26 (International Finance)
- NEP-MON-2001-09-26 (Monetary Economics)
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- Edilean Kleber da Silva & Marcelo Savino Portugal, 2010. "Central Bank Preferences And Monetary Rules Under The Inflation Targeting Regime In Brazil," Working Papers 07-2010, Universidade de São Paulo, Faculdade de Economia, Administração e Contabilidade de Ribeirão Preto.
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