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Impact of Carbon Price Policies on U.S. Industry

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  • Ho, Mun S.
  • Morgenstern, Richard

    ()
    (Resources for the Future)

  • Shih, Jhih-Shyang

    ()
    (Resources for the Future)

Abstract

This paper informs the discussion of carbon price policies by examining the potential for adverse impacts on domestic industries, with a focus on detailed sector-level analysis. The assumed policy scenario involves a unilateral economy-wide $10/ton CO2 charge without accompanying border tax adjustments or other complementary policies. Four modeling approaches are developed as a proxy for the different time horizons over which firms can pass through added costs, change input mix, adopt new technologies, and reallocate capital. Overall, we find that a readily identifiable set of industries experience particularly adverse impacts as measured by reduced output and that the relative burdens on different industries are remarkably consistent across the four time horizons. Output rebounds considerably over longer time horizons, and the adverse impacts on profits diminish even more rapidly in most cases. Over the short term employment losses mirror output declines, while gains in other industries fully offset the losses over the longer horizons. At the same time, leakage abroad is considerable in some sectors, particularly when reductions in exports are considered.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Resources For the Future in its series Discussion Papers with number dp-08-37.

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Date of creation: 15 Dec 2008
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Handle: RePEc:rff:dpaper:dp-08-37

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Related research

Keywords: carbon price; competitiveness; input-output analysis;

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  1. Morgenstern, Richard & Shih, Jhih-Shyang & Ho, Mun & Zhang, Xuehua, 2002. "The Near-Term Impacts of Carbon Mitigation Policies on Manufacturing Industries," Discussion Papers dp-02-06-, Resources For the Future.
  2. Fischer, Carolyn & Morgenstern, Richard, 2003. "Carbon Abatement Costs: Why the Wide Range of Estimates?," Discussion Papers dp-03-42-rev, Resources For the Future.
  3. Arik Levinson & M. Scott Taylor, 2004. "Unmasking the Pollution Haven Effect," NBER Working Papers 10629, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Joseph E. Aldy & William A. Pizer, 2011. "The Competitiveness Impacts of Climate Change Mitigation Policies," NBER Working Papers 17705, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Babiker, Mustafa H., 2005. "Climate change policy, market structure, and carbon leakage," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(2), pages 421-445, March.
  6. Carolyn Fischer & Alan K. Fox, 2007. "Output-Based Allocation of Emissions Permits for Mitigating Tax and Trade Interactions," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 83(4), pages 575-599.
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