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The Competitiveness Impacts of Climate Change Mitigation Policies

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  • Aldy, Joseph E.

    (Harvard University)

  • Pizer, William A.

    (Duke University)

Abstract

The pollution haven hypothesis suggests that unilateral domestic emission mitigation policies could cause adverse "competitiveness" impacts on domestic manufacturers as they lose market share to foreign competitors and relocate production activity--and emissions--to unregulated economies. We construct a precise definition of competitiveness impacts appropriate for climate change regulation that can be estimated exclusively with domestic production and net import data. We use this definition and a 20+ year panel of 400+ U.S. manufacturing industries to estimate the effects of energy prices, which is in turn used to simulate the impacts of carbon pricing policy. We find that a U.S.-only $15 per ton CO2 price will cause competitiveness effects on the order of a 1.0 to 1.3 percent decline in production among the most energy-intensive manufacturing industries. This amounts to roughly one-third of the total impact of a carbon pricing policy on these firms' economic output.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government in its series Working Paper Series with number rwp11-047.

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Date of creation: Dec 2011
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Handle: RePEc:ecl:harjfk:rwp11-047

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  1. Josh Ederington, Arik Levinson & Jenny Minier, 2003. "Footlose and Pollution Free," Working Papers gueconwpa~03-03-04, Georgetown University, Department of Economics.
  2. Grossman, Gene & Krueger, Alan B, 1992. "Environmental Impacts of a North American Free Trade Agreement," CEPR Discussion Papers 644, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Arik Levinson & M. Scott Taylor, 2004. "Unmasking the Pollution Haven Effect," NBER Working Papers 10629, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Vernon Henderson, 1995. "Effects of Air Quality Regulation," NBER Working Papers 5118, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Tim Jeppesen & John A. List & Henk Folmer, 2002. "Environmental Regulations and New Plant Location Decisions: Evidence from a Meta-Analysis," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(1), pages 19-49.
  6. Matthew E. Kahn & Erin T. Mansur, 2010. "How Do Energy Prices, and Labor and Environmental Regulations Affect Local Manufacturing Employment Dynamics? A Regression Discontinuity Approach," NBER Working Papers 16538, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Pizer, William & Morgenstern, Richard & Shih, Jhih-Shyang, 1999. "Jobs Versus the Environment: An Industry-level Perspective," Discussion Papers dp-99-01-rev, Resources For the Future.
  8. Werner Antweiler & Brian R. Copeland & M. Scott Taylor, 2001. "Is Free Trade Good for the Environment?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(4), pages 877-908, September.
  9. Robert C. Feenstra, 1996. "U.S. Imports, 1972-1994: Data and Concordances," NBER Working Papers 5515, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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Cited by:
  1. Ho, Mun S. & Morgenstern, Richard & Shih, Jhih-Shyang, 2008. "Impact of Carbon Price Policies on U.S. Industry," Discussion Papers dp-08-37, Resources For the Future.
  2. Marcos E. Domínguez Viera, 2011. "Does the Impact of Oportunidades Program Increases in Highly Competitive Regions?," Ensayos Revista de Economia, Universidad Autonoma de Nuevo Leon, Facultad de Economia, vol. 0(2), pages 79-111, November.
  3. Adkins, Liwayway & Garbaccio, Richard & Ho, Mun & Moore, Eric & Morgenstern, Richard, 2012. "Carbon Pricing with Output-Based Subsidies: Impacts on U.S. Industries over Multiple Time Frames," Discussion Papers dp-12-27, Resources For the Future.
  4. Heather Klemick, 2012. "What is the Optimal Offsets Discount under a Second-Best Cap & Trade Policy?," NCEE Working Paper Series 201204, National Center for Environmental Economics, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, revised Jul 2012.
  5. Valentina Bosetti & David G. Victor, 2011. "Politics and Economics of Second-Best Regulation of Greenhouse Gases: The Importance of Regulatory Credibility," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 1-24.
  6. Cox, Michael & Peichl, Andreas & Pestel, Nico & Siegloch, Sebastian, 2013. "Labor Demand Effects of Rising Electricity Prices: Evidence for Germany," IZA Policy Papers 74, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  7. Aaditya Mattoo & Arvind Subramanian & Dominique Mensbrugghe & Jianwu He, 2013. "Trade effects of alternative carbon border-tax schemes," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 149(3), pages 587-609, September.

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