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Neutralizing the Adverse Industry Impacts of CO2 Abatement Policies: What Does it Cost?

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A. Lans Bovenberg
Lawrence H. Goulder

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Abstract

The most cost-effective policies for achieving CO2 abatement (e.g., carbon taxes) fail to get off the ground politically because of unacceptable distributional consequences. This paper explores CO2 abatement policies designed to address distributional concerns. Using an intertemporal numerical general equilibrium model of the U.S., we examine how efficiency costs change when these policies include features that neutralize adverse impacts on energy industries. We find that avoiding adverse impacts on profits and equity values in fossil fuel industries involves a relatively small efficiency cost. This stems from the fact that CO2 abatement policies have the potential to generate revenues that are very large relative to the potential loss of profit. By enabling firms to retain only a very small fraction of these potential revenues, the government can protect firms' profits and equity values. Thus, the government needs to grandfather only a small percentage of CO2 emissions permits or, similarly, must exempt only a small fraction of emissions from the base of a carbon tax. These policies involve a small sacrifice of potential government revenue. Such revenue has an efficiency value because it can finance cuts in pre-existing distortionary taxes. Because the revenue sacrifice is small, the efficiency cost is small as well. We also find that there is a very large difference between preserving firms' profits and preserving their tax payments. Offsetting producers' carbon tax payments on a dollar-for-dollar basis (through cuts in corporate tax rates, for example) substantially overcompensates firms, raising profits and equity values significantly relative to the unregulated situation. This reflects the fact that producers can shift onto consumers most of the burden from a carbon tax. The efficiency costs of such policies are far greater than the costs of policies that do not overcompensate firms.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 7654.

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Date of creation: Apr 2000
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:7654

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
D58 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models
H21 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Efficiency; Optimal Taxation

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Full references

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  1. Burtraw, Dallas & Kruger, Joseph & Zetterberg, Lars & Åhman, Markus, 2005. "The Ten-Year Rule: Allocation of Emission Allowances in the EU Emission Trading System," Discussion Papers dp-05-30, Resources For the Future. [Downloadable!]
  2. Parry, Ian, 2003. "Fiscal Interactions and the Case for Carbon Taxes over Grandfathered Carbon Permits," Discussion Papers dp-03-46, Resources For the Future. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Stefan Weishaar, 2007. "CO2 emission allowance allocation mechanisms, allocative efficiency and the environment: a static and dynamic perspective," European Journal of Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 24(1), pages 29-70, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Lawrence H. Goulder & William A. Pizer, 2006. "The Economics of Climate Change," NBER Working Papers 11923, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Herman Vollebergh, 2004. "Lessons from the Polder: Is Dutch CO2-Taxation Optimal?," Working Papers 2004.6, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei. [Downloadable!]
  6. Don Fullerton & Gilbert E. Metcalf, 2002. "Cap and Trade Policies in the Presence of Monopoly and Distortionary Taxation," NBER Working Papers 8901, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  7. Burtraw, Dallas & Palmer, Karen & Bharvirkar, Ranjit & Paul, Anthony, 2002. "The Effect on Asset Values of the Allocation of Carbon Dioxide Emission Allowances," Discussion Papers dp-02-15-, Resources For the Future. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. John C. V. Pezzey, 2002. "EmissionTaxes and Tradable Permits: A Comparison of views on Long Run Efficiency," Economics and Environment Network Working Papers 0210, Australian National University, Economics and Environment Network. [Downloadable!]
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  10. Gilbert E. Metcalf, 2003. "Pollution Taxes in a Second-Best World," Discussion Papers Series, Department of Economics, Tufts University 0316, Department of Economics, Tufts University. [Downloadable!]
  11. Goulder, Lawrence, 2002. "Mitigating the Adverse Impacts of CO2 Abatement Policies on Energy-Intensive Industries," Discussion Papers dp-02-22, Resources For the Future. [Downloadable!]
  12. Bovenberg, A.L. & Goulder, L.H. & Gurney, D.J., 2003. "Efficiency costs of meeting industry-distributional constraints under environmental permits and taxes," Discussion Paper 86, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  13. Fischer, Carolyn & Fox, Alan, 2004. "Output-Based Allocations of Emissions Permits: Efficiency and Distributional Effects in a General Equilibrium Setting with Taxes and Trade," Discussion Papers dp-04-37, Resources For the Future. [Downloadable!]
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    Other versions:
  15. Geir H. Bjertnæs, 2005. "Avoiding Adverse Employment Effects from Energy Taxation: What does it cost?," Discussion Papers 432, Research Department of Statistics Norway. [Downloadable!]
  16. Burtraw, Dallas & Palmer, Karen & Kahn, Daniel, 2005. "CO2 Allowance Allocation in the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative and the Effect on Electricity Investors," Discussion Papers dp-05-55, Resources For the Future. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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