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Effects of Unilateral Climate Policy on Terms of Trade, Capital Accumulation, and Welfare in a World Economy

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  • Karl Farmer
  • Birgit Bednar-Friedl
  • Andreas Rainer

Abstract

We present a two-good, two-country overlapping generations model where emissions arise from production and each country has a domestic emission permit system. When one country unilaterally reduces her cap on emissions, her output available for domestic and foreign consumption diminishes more than in the other country. With unchanged consumption expenditure shares for both goods the terms of trade improve, while capital stocks decline in the reducing and less strongly in the non-reducing country. The net welfare effect of improving terms of trade and falling capital stocks is negative in both countries. However, if the country which unilaterally reduces her emission permits is a net creditor to the world economy, her own welfare loss remains below that of the non-reducing country.

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File URL: http://www.cesifo-group.de/portal/page/portal/DocBase_Content/WP/WP-CESifo_Working_Papers/wp-cesifo-2008/wp-cesifo-2008-08/cesifo1_wp2375.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by CESifo Group Munich in its series CESifo Working Paper Series with number 2375.

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Date of creation: 2008
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Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_2375

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Keywords: capital accumulation; emission permits; terms of trade; overlapping generations; welfare;

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References

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  1. Pierre-André Jouvet & Philippe Michel & Gilles Rotillon, 2004. "Optimal growth with pollution : how to use pollution permits ?," Cahiers de la Maison des Sciences Economiques v04012, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1).
  2. Onno Kuik & Reyer Gerlagh, 2003. "Trade Liberalization and Carbon Leakage," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3), pages 97-120.
  3. Stef Proost & Denise Van Regemorter, 2004. "Climate Change Policy in European Countries and its effects on industry," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 9(4), pages 453-473, October.
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  6. Jouvet, Pierre-André & Michel, Philippe & Rotillon, Gilles, 2005. "Equilibrium with a market of permits," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(2), pages 148-163, June.
  7. Babiker, Mustafa H., 2005. "Climate change policy, market structure, and carbon leakage," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(2), pages 421-445, March.
  8. Yoshiyasu Ono & Akihisa Shibata, 2005. "Fiscal Spending, Relative-Price Dynamics, and Welfare in a World Economy," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(2), pages 216-236, 05.
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  10. Ono, Tetsuo, 2001. "The Effects of Emission Permits on Growth and the Environment," Discussion Paper 33, Center for Intergenerational Studies, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
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  12. Grubb, M. & Neuhoff, K., 2006. "Allocation and competitiveness in the EU emissions trading scheme: policy overview," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0645, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  13. Carolyn Fischer & Alan K. Fox, 2007. "Output-Based Allocation of Emissions Permits for Mitigating Tax and Trade Interactions," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 83(4), pages 575-599.
  14. Zhiqi Chen, 1992. "Long-Run Equilibria in a Dynamic Heckscher-Ohlin Model," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 25(4), pages 923-43, November.
  15. van Asselt, Harro & Biermann, Frank, 2007. "European emissions trading and the international competitiveness of energy-intensive industries: a legal and political evaluation of possible supporting measures," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 497-506, January.
  16. Ghosh, Atish R., 1992. "Fiscal policy, the terms of trade, and the external balance," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1-2), pages 105-125, August.
  17. Copeland, Brian R. & Taylor, M. Scott, 2005. "Free trade and global warming: a trade theory view of the Kyoto protocol," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 205-234, March.
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Cited by:
  1. McKibbin, Warwick J. & Morris, Adele C. & Wilcoxen, Peter J., 2014. "Pricing carbon in the U.S.: A model-based analysis of power-sector-only approaches," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 130-150.
  2. Bednar-Friedl, Birgit & Farmer, Karl, 2010. "External balance, dynamic efficiency, and the welfare effects of unilateral and multilateral permit policies in interdependent economies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(5), pages 980-990, September.
  3. Birgit Bednar-Friedl & Karl Farmer, 2009. "Internationally Coordinated Emission Permit Policies: An Option for Withdrawers from the Kyoto Protocol?," CESifo Working Paper Series 2764, CESifo Group Munich.

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