IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/red/sed015/1200.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Retirement in the Shadow (Banking)

Author

Listed:
  • Facundo Piguillem

    (EIEF)

  • Guillermo Ordonez

    (University of Pennsylvania)

Abstract

We analyze the aggregate implications of the increase in life expectancy with the emergence of shadow banking. We consider a standard overlapping generations economy with neoclassical technology. Agents live and work with certainty for the first part of their life and then retire and can die with constant probability. Since after retirement agents cannot work and have an uncertain life span, they buy insurance during their working life in the form of equity or annuities. These financial instruments are provided by a financial intermediary with CRS technology. The intermediation cost has two main components, a constant cost per unit of loan and a liquidity cost. We show that since 1990 there has been a large decrease in the borrowing and lending interest rate spread, and that almost all of it is due to the fall in the liquidity cost attributed to emergence of shadow banking. At the same time, life expectancy has increased substantially from 74 years in 1980 to around 79 years. We calibrate the model economy to replicate the level of financial intermediation in 1980 and then introduce the observed changes in the liquidity cost and life expectancy. The model generates the same increase in the quantities intermediated and changes in prices as observed in the data. Neither the decrease in the liquidity cost or the change in life expectancy alone account for the observed changes.

Suggested Citation

  • Facundo Piguillem & Guillermo Ordonez, 2015. "Retirement in the Shadow (Banking)," 2015 Meeting Papers 1200, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    • Handle: RePEc:red:sed015:1200
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    To our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
    1. Check below whether another version of this item is available online.
    2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
    3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mehra, Rajnish & Prescott, Edward C., 1985. "The equity premium: A puzzle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 145-161, March.
    2. Arvind Krishnamurthy & Annette Vissing-Jorgensen, 2012. "The Aggregate Demand for Treasury Debt," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 120(2), pages 233-267.
    3. Adrien Auclert & Frederic Martenet & Hannes Malmberg, 2019. "Wealth and Demographics in the 21st Century," 2019 Meeting Papers 952, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    4. Andreas Fagereng & Charles Gottlieb & Luigi Guiso, 2017. "Asset Market Participation and Portfolio Choice over the Life-Cycle," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 72(2), pages 705-750, April.
    5. Andrés Fernández & Ayşe İmrohoroğlu & Cesar E. Tamayo, 2019. "Saving Rates in Latin America: A Neoclassical Perspective," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 67(4), pages 791-823, December.
    6. Thomas Philippon, 2015. "Has the US Finance Industry Become Less Efficient? On the Theory and Measurement of Financial Intermediation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(4), pages 1408-1438, April.
    7. Bernheim, B Douglas, 1991. "How Strong Are Bequest Motives? Evidence Based on Estimates of the Demand for Life Insurance and Annuities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(5), pages 899-927, October.
    8. Thomas W. Bates & Kathleen M. Kahle & René M. Stulz, 2009. "Why Do U.S. Firms Hold So Much More Cash than They Used To?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 64(5), pages 1985-2021, October.
    9. Fernando Alvarez & Luigi Guiso & Francesco Lippi, 2012. "Durable Consumption and Asset Management with Transaction and Observation Costs," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(5), pages 2272-2300, August.
    10. Carvalho, Carlos & Ferrero, Andrea & Nechio, Fernanda, 2016. "Demographics and real interest rates: Inspecting the mechanism," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 208-226.
    11. Paul A. Samuelson, 1958. "An Exact Consumption-Loan Model of Interest with or without the Social Contrivance of Money," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 66, pages 467-467.
    12. Mankiw, N. Gregory & Zeldes, Stephen P., 1991. "The consumption of stockholders and nonstockholders," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 97-112, March.
    13. John G. Fernald, 2015. "Productivity and Potential Output before, during, and after the Great Recession," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 29(1), pages 1-51.
    14. Douglas W. Diamond & Philip H. Dybvig, 2000. "Bank runs, deposit insurance, and liquidity," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, vol. 24(Win), pages 14-23.
    15. William G. Gale & John Karl Scholz, 1994. "Intergenerational Transfers and the Accumulation of Wealth," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 8(4), pages 145-160, Fall.
    16. Emmanuel Farhi & Jean Tirole, 2021. "Shadow Banking and the Four Pillars of Traditional Financial Intermediation [Securitization without Risk Transfer]," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 88(6), pages 2622-2653.
    17. Douglas W. Diamond & Raghuram G. Rajan, 2001. "Liquidity Risk, Liquidity Creation, and Financial Fragility: A Theory of Banking," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 109(2), pages 287-327, April.
    18. Diaz-Gimenez, Javier & Prescott, Edward C. & Fitzgerald, Terry & Alvarez, Fernando, 1992. "Banking in computable general equilibrium economies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 16(3-4), pages 533-559.
    19. Bertaut, Carol & DeMarco, Laurie Pounder & Kamin, Steven & Tryon, Ralph, 2012. "ABS inflows to the United States and the global financial crisis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 219-234.
    20. Tyler Atkinson & David Luttrell & Harvey Rosenblum, 2013. "Assessing the costs and consequences of the 2007–09 financial crisis and its aftermath," Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, vol. 8(7), September.
    21. Guillaume Plantin, 2015. "Shadow Banking and Bank Capital Regulation," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 28(1), pages 146-175.
    22. Costa, Dora L., 1998. "The Evolution of Retirement," National Bureau of Economic Research Books, University of Chicago Press, edition 1, number 9780226116082, December.
    23. Rajnish Mehra & Facundo Piguillem & Edward C. Prescott, 2011. "Costly financial intermediation in neoclassical growth theory," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 2(1), pages 1-36, March.
    24. Bloom, David E. & Canning, David & Mansfield, Richard K. & Moore, Michael, 2007. "Demographic change, social security systems, and savings," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 92-114, January.
    25. Caballero, Ricardo & Gourinchas, Pierre-Olivier & Farhi, Emmanuel, 2015. "Global Imbalances and Currency Wars at the ZLB," CEPR Discussion Papers 10905, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    26. Andreas Fagereng & Martin Blomhoff Holm & Benjamin Moll & Gisle Natvik, 2019. "Saving Behavior Across the Wealth Distribution: The Importance of Capital Gains," NBER Working Papers 26588, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    27. Fernando Alvarez & Terry J. Fitzgerald, 1992. "Banking in computable general equilibrium economies: technical appendices I and II," Staff Report 155, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    28. David S. Scharfstein, 2018. "Presidential Address: Pension Policy and the Financial System," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 73(4), pages 1463-1512, August.
    29. Costa, Dora L, 1998. "The Evolution of Retirement: Summary of a Research Project," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(2), pages 232-236, May.
    30. David E. Bloom & David Canning & Michael Moore, 2014. "Optimal Retirement with Increasing Longevity," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 116(3), pages 838-858, July.
    31. Laurence Ball, 2014. "Long-term damage from the Great Recession in OECD countries," European Journal of Economics and Economic Policies: Intervention, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 11(2), pages 149-160, September.
    32. İmrohoroğlu, Ayşe & Zhao, Kai, 2018. "The chinese saving rate: Long-term care risks, family insurance, and demographics," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 33-52.
    33. Gustman, Alan L. & Steinmeier, Thomas L., 1999. "Effects of pensions on savings: analysis with data from the health and retirement study," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 271-324, June.
    34. Margherita Borella & Mariacristina De Nardi & Fang Yang, 2017. "The Effects of Marriage-Related Taxes and Social Security Benefits," NBER Working Papers 23972, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    35. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/hqvfahst79ekpe0losvq1h46k is not listed on IDEAS
    36. Lee Lockwood, 2012. "Bequest Motives and the Annuity Puzzle," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 15(2), pages 226-243, April.
    37. Tyler Atkinson & David Luttrell & Harvey Rosenblum, 2013. "How bad was it? The costs and consequences of the 2007–09 financial crisis," Staff Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Jul.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Guillermo Ordoñez & Facundo Piguillem, 2020. "Savings and Saving Rates: Up or Down?," NBER Working Papers 27179, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Bergoeing, Raphael & Piguillem, Facundo, 2022. "Cooperatives versus traditional banks: the impact of interbank market exclusion," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), December.
    3. Guillermo Ordonez & Facundo Piguillem, 2022. "Saving Rates and Savings Ratios," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 46, pages 365-381, October.
    4. Ari, Anil & Darracq Pariès, Matthieu & Kok, Christoffer & Żochowski, Dawid, 2016. "When shadows grow longer: shadow banking with endogenous entry," Working Paper Series 1943, European Central Bank.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Thomas Philippon, 2015. "Has the US Finance Industry Become Less Efficient? On the Theory and Measurement of Financial Intermediation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(4), pages 1408-1438, April.
    2. Carl-Johan Dalgaard & Holger Strulik, 2017. "The Genesis of the Golden Age: Accounting for the Rise in Health and Leisure," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 24, pages 132-151, March.
    3. Holger Strulik & Katharina Werner, 2016. "50 is the new 30—long-run trends of schooling and retirement explained by human aging," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 21(2), pages 165-187, June.
    4. Francisco Gomes & Michael Haliassos & Tarun Ramadorai, 2021. "Household Finance," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 59(3), pages 919-1000, September.
    5. DeAngelo, Harry & Stulz, René M., 2015. "Liquid-claim production, risk management, and bank capital structure: Why high leverage is optimal for banks," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(2), pages 219-236.
    6. Kreamer, Jonathan, 2022. "Financial intermediation and the supply of liquidity," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    7. Begenau, Juliane, 2020. "Capital requirements, risk choice, and liquidity provision in a business-cycle model," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(2), pages 355-378.
    8. Martín-Oliver, Alfredo & Ruano, Sonia & Salas-Fumás, Vicente, 2013. "Why high productivity growth of banks preceded the financial crisis," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 688-712.
    9. Douglas Gale & Tanju Yorulmazer, 2020. "Bank capital, fire sales, and the social value of deposits," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 69(4), pages 919-963, June.
    10. Tim Landvoigt & Juliane Begenau, 2016. "Financial Regulation in a Quantitative Model of the Modern Banking System," 2016 Meeting Papers 1462, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    11. Hua Chai & Mr. Jun I Kim, 2018. "Demographics, Pension Systems and the Saving-Investment Balance," IMF Working Papers 2018/265, International Monetary Fund.
    12. Semyon Malamud & Andreas Schrimpf, 2016. "Intermediation Markups and Monetary Policy Passthrough," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 16-75, Swiss Finance Institute.
    13. Del Negro, Marco & Giannone, Domenico & Giannoni, Marc P. & Tambalotti, Andrea, 2019. "Global trends in interest rates," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 248-262.
    14. Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Lee Ohanian, 2010. "The Spanish Crisis from a Global Perspective," Working Papers 2010-03, FEDEA.
    15. Mariacristina De Nardi & Eric French & John Bailey Jones, 2016. "Savings After Retirement: A Survey," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 8(1), pages 177-204, October.
    16. Mark Egan & Stefan Lewellen & Adi Sunderam, 2017. "The Cross Section of Bank Value," NBER Working Papers 23291, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Antoine Bommier & Daniel Harenberg & François Le Grand & Cormac O'Dea, 2020. "Recursive Preferences, the Value of Life, and Household Finance," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2231, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    18. Erin Cottle Hunt & Frank N. Caliendo, 2022. "Social security and risk sharing: A survey of four decades of economic analysis," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(5), pages 1591-1609, December.
    19. Athreya, Kartik B., 2014. "Big Ideas in Macroeconomics: A Nontechnical View," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262019736, December.
    20. Bolton, Patrick & Oehmke, Martin, 2019. "Bank resolution and the structure of global banks," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 90056, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:red:sed015:1200. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Christian Zimmermann (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/sedddea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.