IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/red/sed013/905.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

"Shooting" the CAPM

Author

Listed:
  • Lu Zhang

    (The Ohio State University)

  • Howard Kung

    (University of British Columbia)

  • Hang Bai

    (The Ohio State University)

Abstract

We provide a disaster-based explanation for the failure of the CAPM in the post-Compustat sample as well as its success to explain the value premium in the long sample that includes the Great Depression. In an investment-based asset pricing model embedded with rare disasters, value stocks are more sensitive to disaster shocks than growth stocks. More important, disasters introduce strong nonlinearities in the relation between the pricing kernel and the return on wealth. The nonlinearities allow the model to explain the failure of the CAPM in samples in which disasters are not materialized. However, the CAPM explains the value premium in samples with disasters in the model, consistent with the data.

Suggested Citation

  • Lu Zhang & Howard Kung & Hang Bai, 2013. ""Shooting" the CAPM," 2013 Meeting Papers 905, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  • Handle: RePEc:red:sed013:905
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://red-files-public.s3.amazonaws.com/meetpapers/2013/paper_905.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1992. "The Cross-Section of Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(2), pages 427-465, June.
    2. Frederico Belo & Xiaoji Lin & Santiago Bazdresch, 2014. "Labor Hiring, Investment, and Stock Return Predictability in the Cross Section," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 122(1), pages 129-177.
    3. Bansal, Ravi & Kiku, Dana & Yaron, Amir, 2016. "Risks for the long run: Estimation with time aggregation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 52-69.
    4. Danthine, Jean-Pierre & Donaldson, John B, 1999. "Non-falsified Expectations and General Equilibrium Asset Pricing: The Power of the Peso," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(458), pages 607-635, October.
    5. Francois Gourio, 2012. "Disaster Risk and Business Cycles," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(6), pages 2734-2766, October.
    6. John H. Cochrane, 2011. "Presidential Address: Discount Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 66(4), pages 1047-1108, August.
    7. Ang, Andrew & Chen, Joseph, 2007. "CAPM over the long run: 1926-2001," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 1-40, January.
    8. Larry G. Epstein & Stanley E. Zin, 2013. "Substitution, risk aversion and the temporal behavior of consumption and asset returns: A theoretical framework," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Leonard C MacLean & William T Ziemba (ed.), HANDBOOK OF THE FUNDAMENTALS OF FINANCIAL DECISION MAKING Part I, chapter 12, pages 207-239, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    9. Rietz, Thomas A., 1988. "The equity risk premium a solution," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 117-131, July.
    10. Harjoat S. Bhamra & Lars-Alexander Kuehn & Ilya A. Strebulaev, 2010. "The Levered Equity Risk Premium and Credit Spreads: A Unified Framework," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(2), pages 645-703, February.
    11. Robert J. Barro, 2009. "Rare Disasters, Asset Prices, and Welfare Costs," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(1), pages 243-264, March.
    12. Eugene F. Fama & Kenneth R. French, 2006. "The Value Premium and the CAPM," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(5), pages 2163-2185, October.
    13. Xavier Gabaix, 2012. "Variable Rare Disasters: An Exactly Solved Framework for Ten Puzzles in Macro-Finance," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 127(2), pages 645-700.
    14. Robert J. Barro, 2006. "Rare Disasters and Asset Markets in the Twentieth Century," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 121(3), pages 823-866.
    15. Georg Kaltenbrunner & Lars A. Lochstoer, 2010. "Long-Run Risk through Consumption Smoothing," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(8), pages 3190-3224, August.
    16. Lewellen, Jonathan & Nagel, Stefan, 2006. "The conditional CAPM does not explain asset-pricing anomalies," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(2), pages 289-314, November.
    17. Lu Zhang, 2005. "The Value Premium," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(1), pages 67-103, February.
    18. Ian W. Martin, 2013. "Consumption-Based Asset Pricing with Higher Cumulants," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 80(2), pages 745-773.
    19. Ravi Bansal & Amir Yaron, 2004. "Risks for the Long Run: A Potential Resolution of Asset Pricing Puzzles," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(4), pages 1481-1509, August.
    20. Santos, Tano & Veronesi, Pietro, 2010. "Habit formation, the cross section of stock returns and the cash-flow risk puzzle," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(2), pages 385-413, November.
    21. Petkova, Ralitsa & Zhang, Lu, 2005. "Is value riskier than growth?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(1), pages 187-202, October.
    22. John H. Cochrane, 2011. "Discount Rates," NBER Working Papers 16972, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    23. Robert J. Barro & Jose F. Ursua, 2008. "Macroeconomic Crises since 1870," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 39(1 (Spring), pages 255-350.
    24. Belo, Frederico & Lin, Xiaoji, 2012. "Labor Heterogeneity and Asset Prices: The Importance of Skilled Labor," Working Paper Series 2012-25, Ohio State University, Charles A. Dice Center for Research in Financial Economics.
    25. Francois Gourio, 2008. "Disasters and Recoveries," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(2), pages 68-73, May.
    26. Lin, Xiaoji & Zhang, Lu, 2013. "The investment manifesto," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(3), pages 351-366.
    27. Ai, Hengjie & Kiku, Dana, 2013. "Growth to value: Option exercise and the cross section of equity returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(2), pages 325-349.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bai, Hang & Hou, Kewei & Kung, Howard & Li, Erica X.N. & Zhang, Lu, 2019. "The CAPM strikes back? An equilibrium model with disasters," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(2), pages 269-298.
    2. Bai, Hang & Hou, Kewei & Kung, Howard & Zhang, Lu, 2015. "The CAPM Strikes Back? An Investment Model with Disasters," Working Paper Series 2015-03, Ohio State University, Charles A. Dice Center for Research in Financial Economics.
    3. Bianchi, Francesco, 2020. "The Great Depression and the Great Recession: A view from financial markets," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 240-261.
    4. Jerry Tsai & Jessica A. Wachter, 2014. "Rare Booms and Disasters in a Multi-sector Endowment Economy," NBER Working Papers 20062, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Bianchi, Francesco, 2008. "Rare Events, Financial Crises, and the Cross-Section of Asset Returns," MPRA Paper 20831, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 01 Jan 2010.
    6. Robert Barro & Tao Jin, 2021. "Rare Events and Long-Run Risks," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 39, pages 1-25, January.
    7. Jessica Wachter & Mete Kilic, 2017. "Risk, Unemployment, and the Stock Market: A Rare-Event-Based Explanation of Labor Market Volatility," 2017 Meeting Papers 129, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    8. Robert Barro & Tao Jin, 2021. "Rare Events and Long-Run Risks," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 39, pages 1-25, January.
    9. François Gourio, 2013. "Credit Risk and Disaster Risk," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 5(3), pages 1-34, July.
    10. Isoré, Marlène & Szczerbowicz, Urszula, 2017. "Disaster risk and preference shifts in a New Keynesian model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 97-125.
    11. Horvath, Jaroslav, 2020. "Macroeconomic disasters and the equity premium puzzle: Are emerging countries riskier?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    12. Kuehn Lars-Alexander & Petrosky-Nadeau Nicolas & Zhang Lu, "undated". "An Equilibrium Asset Pricing Model with Labor Market Search," GSIA Working Papers 2010-E63, Carnegie Mellon University, Tepper School of Business.
    13. Jerry Tsai & Jessica A. Wachter, 2015. "Disaster Risk and its Implications for Asset Pricing," NBER Working Papers 20926, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Lewis, Karen K. & Liu, Edith X., 2017. "Disaster risk and asset returns: An international perspective," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(S1), pages 42-58.
    15. Andrew Y. Chen, 2014. "Precautionary Volatility and Asset Prices," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2014-59, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    16. Michael Weber, 2014. "Nominal Rigidities and Asset Pricing," 2014 Meeting Papers 53, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    17. Hasler, Michael & Marfè, Roberto, 2016. "Disaster recovery and the term structure of dividend strips," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 122(1), pages 116-134.
    18. Bai, Hang, 2021. "Unemployment and credit risk," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(1), pages 127-145.
    19. Robert Barro, 2023. "r Minus g," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 48, pages 1-17, April.
    20. Bakshi, Gurdip & Chabi-Yo, Fousseni, 2011. "Variance Bounds on the Permanent and Transitory Components of Stochastic Discount Factors," Working Paper Series 2011-11, Ohio State University, Charles A. Dice Center for Research in Financial Economics.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:red:sed013:905. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Christian Zimmermann (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/sedddea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.