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The Effect of Macroeconomic Conditions on Banks’ Risk and Profitability

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Author Info
Marianne Gizycki (Reserve Bank of Australia)
Abstract

This paper examines the overall variability of Australian banks’ credit risk during the 1990s. It assesses the extent to which this overall variability can be explained by variability in the level of banks’ aggregate credit risk over time, or alternatively, by variation in the average credit risk of different banks. The ability of macroeconomic variables to explain movements in bank risk is also considered. Discussion of banks’ credit risk is supplemented with analysis of the rate of return on assets earned by banks since the 1960s. While most of the variability in banks’ credit risk and profitability is due to differences between banks, macroeconomic variables are found to exert a strong influence on banks’ risk and profitability. The share of interest payments in the corporate and household sectors’ income, real credit growth and property prices are most strongly correlated with banks’ risk and profitability.

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Paper provided by Reserve Bank of Australia in its series RBA Research Discussion Papers with number rdp2001-06.

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Date of creation: Sep 2001
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Handle: RePEc:rba:rbardp:rdp2001-06

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Related research
Keywords: banking; credit risk; cycles;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Mortgages
G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Diamond, Douglas W, 1991. "Monitoring and Reputation: The Choice between Bank Loans and Directly Placed Debt," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(4), pages 689-721, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Rajan, Raghuram G, 1994. "Why Bank Credit Policies Fluctuate: A Theory and Some Evidence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 109(2), pages 399-441, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Charles W. Calomiris & Athanasios Orphanides & Steven A. Sharpe, 1994. "Leverage as a state variable for employment, inventory accumulation, and fixed investment," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 94-24, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    Other versions:
  5. Murphy, Kevin M & Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert W, 1989. "Industrialization and the Big Push," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(5), pages 1003-26, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  6. Philip Lowe & Thomas Rohling, 1993. "Agency Costs, Balance Sheets and the Business Cycle," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp9311, Reserve Bank of Australia. [Downloadable!]
  7. Demirguc-Kunt, Asli & Huizinga, Harry, 1998. "Determinants of commercial bank interest margins and profitability : some international evidence," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1900, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Asli Demirgüç-Kunt, 1989. "Deposit-institution failures: a review of empirical literature," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue Q IV, pages 2-18. [Downloadable!]
  9. Cole, Rebel A. & Gunther, Jeffery W., 1995. "Separating the likelihood and timing of bank failure," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(6), pages 1073-1089, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Kiyotaki, Nobuhiro & Moore, John, 1997. "Credit Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(2), pages 211-48, April.
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  11. William R. Emmons, 1993. "Increased risk-taking versus local economic conditions as causes of bank failures," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue May, pages 189-201.
  12. George G. Kaufman, 1998. "Central banks, asset bubbles, and financial stability," Working Paper Series WP-98-12, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. [Downloadable!]
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Ivan Baboucek & Martin Jancar, 2005. "Effects of Macroeconomic Shocks to the Quality of the Aggregate Loan Portfolio," Working Papers 2005/01, Czech National Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  2. Adam Głogowski, 2008. "Macroeconomic determinants of Polish banks’ loan losses – results of a panel data study," National Bank of Poland Working Papers 53, National Bank of Poland, Economic Institute. [Downloadable!]
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