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Probabilistic Sophistication and Reverse Bayesianism

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Author Info

  • Edi Karni

    ()
    (Johns Hopkins University)

  • Marie-Louise Vierø

    ()
    (Queen's University)

Abstract

This paper extends our earlier work on reverse Bayesianism by relaxing the assumption that decision makers abide by expected utility theory, assuming instead weaker axioms that merely imply that they are probabilistically sophisticated. We show that our main results, namely, (modified) representation theorems and corresponding rules for updating beliefs over expanding state spaces and null events that constitute "reverse Bayesianism," remain valid.

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File URL: http://qed.econ.queensu.ca/working_papers/papers/qed_wp_1303.pdf
File Function: First version 2013
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Queen's University, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 1303.

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Length: 24 pages
Date of creation: Feb 2013
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:qed:wpaper:1303

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Keywords: Awareness; Unawareness; Reverse Bayesianism; Probabilistic sophistication;

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  1. Mark J. Machina & David Schmeidler, 1994. "Bayes Without Bernoulli: Simple Conditions for Probabilistically Sophisticated Choice," Discussion Papers 1088, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
  2. Grant, Simon & Polak, Ben, 2006. "Bayesian beliefs with stochastic monotonicity: An extension of Machina and Schmeidler," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 130(1), pages 264-282, September.
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