IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/969.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Pension Scheme in Vietnam: Current Status and Challenges in an Aging Society

Author

Listed:
  • Giang, Thanh Long

Abstract

The publicly-managed Pay-As-You-Go (PAYG) defined-benefit pension scheme in Vietnam is described, with an analysis of its financial sustainability in the context of an aging society in a dynamically efficient economy. By using actuarial models developed by the International Labor Organization (ILO), the paper finds that the implicit pension debt (IPD) of the scheme is high in comparison with GDP of the year 2000, which is the base year for projections. Regarding the social aspect, a high IPD implies that the burden of maintaining this scheme is borne by the current and future participants. For this reason, the pension scheme in Vietnam will cause not only financial instability but also inter-generational inequity. In order to avoid this situation, the current scheme needs to be reformed. In particular, Vietnam should move to a partially-funded defined-contribution scheme with careful considerations of social and economic impacts so as to avoid both financial instability and inter-generational inequity.

Suggested Citation

  • Giang, Thanh Long, 2004. "The Pension Scheme in Vietnam: Current Status and Challenges in an Aging Society," MPRA Paper 969, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:969
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/969/1/MPRA_paper_969.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Laurence J. Kotlikoff & Willi Leibfritz & Willi Leibfritz, 1999. "An International Comparison of Generational Accounts," NBER Chapters, in: Generational Accounting around the World, pages 73-102, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Blanchard Olivier & Weil Philippe, 2001. "Dynamic Efficiency, the Riskless Rate, and Debt Ponzi Games under Uncertainty," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 1(2), pages 1-23, November.
    3. International Monetary Fund, 1999. "Vietnam: Selected Issues," IMF Staff Country Reports 1999/055, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Noriyuki Takayama & Yukinobu Kitamura & Hiroshi Yoshida, 1999. "Generational Accounting in Japan," NBER Chapters, in: Generational Accounting around the World, pages 447-470, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Faruqee, Hamid & Muhleisen, Martin, 2003. "Population aging in Japan: demographic shock and fiscal sustainability," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 185-210, April.
    6. Oshio, Takashi & 小塩, 隆士 & オシオ, タカシ, 2002. "Net Pension Liabilities, Intergenerational Equity, and Pension Reforms," Discussion Paper 131, Center for Intergenerational Studies, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    7. Jagadeesh Gokhale, 1996. "Demographic change, generational accounts, and national saving in the United States," Working Papers (Old Series) 9603, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    8. Paul van den Noord & Richard Herd, 1993. "Pension Liabilities in the Seven Major Economies," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 142, OECD Publishing.
    9. Feldstein, Martin & Liebman, Jeffrey B., 2002. "Social security," Handbook of Public Economics, in: A. J. Auerbach & M. Feldstein (ed.), Handbook of Public Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 32, pages 2245-2324, Elsevier.
    10. Kunieda, Shigeki, 2002. "Pension Reforms in Asian Countries," Hitotsubashi Journal of Economics, Hitotsubashi University, vol. 43(2), pages 55-56, December.
    11. Holzmann, Robert & Palacios, Robert & Zviniene, Asta, 2004. "Implicit pension debt: issues, measurement and scope in international perspective," Social Protection Discussion Papers and Notes 30153, The World Bank.
    12. Alan J. Auerbach & Laurence J. Kotlikoff & Robert P. Hagemann & Giuseppe Nicoletti, 1989. "The Economic Dynamics of an Ageing Population: The Case of Four OECD Countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 62, OECD Publishing.
    13. Robert P. Hagemann & Giuseppe Nicoletti, 1989. "Ageing Populations: Economic Effects and Implications for Public Finance," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 61, OECD Publishing.
    14. Friedman, Barry*James, Estelle*Kane, Cheikh*Quei, 1996. "How can China provide income security for its rapidly aging population?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1674, The World Bank.
    15. Robert Holzmann & Robert Palacios & Asta Zviniene, 2001. "On the Economics and Scope of Implicit Pension Debt: An International Perspective," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 28(1), pages 97-129, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Giang Thanh Long & Wade D. Pfau, 2008. "Demographic Changes And The Long-Term Pension Finances In Vietnam: A Stochastic Actuarial Assessment," GRIPS Discussion Papers 08-05, National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies.
    2. Nguyen, Cuong & Van den Berg, Marrit, 2009. "The Impact of Public Transfers on Poverty and Inequality: Evidence from rural Vietnam," MPRA Paper 48671, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Giang, Thanh Long & Pfau, Wade Donald, 2008. "Demographic Changes and Pension Finances in Vietnam," MPRA Paper 9931, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Giang, Thanh Long & Pfau, Wade Donald, 2008. "Determinants of Elderly Poverty in Vietnam," MPRA Paper 9927, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Giang, Thanh Long, 2005. "Pension Liabilities and Generational Relations: The Case of Vietnam," MPRA Paper 970, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Mar 2006.
    6. Long T. Giang & Wade D. Pfau, 2009. "Vulnerability of Vietnamese Elderly to Poverty: Determinants and Policy Implications," Asian Economic Journal, East Asian Economic Association, vol. 23(4), pages 419-437, December.
    7. Nguyen Viet, Cuong, 2010. "The Impact of Social Security on Household Welfare: Evidence from a Transition Country," MPRA Paper 40777, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Klaus Kaier & Christoph Müller, 2015. "New figures on unfunded public pension entitlements across Europe: concept, results and applications," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 42(4), pages 865-895, November.
    2. Robert Fenge & Martin Werding, 2004. "Ageing and the tax implied in public pension schemes: simulations for selected OECD countries," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 25(2), pages 159-200, June.
    3. Heidler, Matthias & Müller, Christoph & Weddige, Olaf, 2009. "Measuring accrued-to-date liabilities of public pension systems: Method, data and limitations," FZG Discussion Papers 37, University of Freiburg, Research Center for Generational Contracts (FZG).
    4. Luca Beltrametti & Matteo Della Valle, 2011. "Does the implicit pension debt mean anything after all?," CeRP Working Papers 118, Center for Research on Pensions and Welfare Policies, Turin (Italy).
    5. Robert Fenge & Martin Werding, 2003. "Ageing and Fiscal Imbalances Across Generations: Concepts of Measurement," CESifo Working Paper Series 842, CESifo.
    6. Beltrametti, Luca & Della Valle, Matteo, 2011. "Does pension debt mean anything after all?," MPRA Paper 29694, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Georgios Symeonidis & Platon Tinios & Michail Chouzouris, 2021. "Public Pensions and Implicit Debt: An Investigation for EU Member States Using Ageing Working Group 2021 Projections," Risks, MDPI, vol. 9(11), pages 1-18, October.
    8. Qing Zhao & Haijie Mi, 2019. "Evaluation on the Sustainability of Urban Public Pension System in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(5), pages 1-20, March.
    9. K. Mc Morrow & W. Röger, 2002. "EU pension reform - An overview of the debate and an empirical assessment of the main policy reform options," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 162, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    10. Kotlikoff, Laurence J., 2002. "Generational policy," Handbook of Public Economics, in: A. J. Auerbach & M. Feldstein (ed.), Handbook of Public Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 27, pages 1873-1932, Elsevier.
    11. Barry P. Bosworth & Gary Burtless, 1997. "Social Security reform in a global context," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue jun, pages 243-274.
    12. Christine Mayrhuber & Gerhard Rünstler & Thomas Url & Werner Eichhorst & Michael J. Kendzia & Maarten Gerard & Connie Nielsen, 2011. "Pension Systems in the EU. Contingent Liabilities and Assets in the Public and Private Sector," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 43938, April.
    13. Warwick J. McKibbin, 2006. "The Global Macroeconomic Consequences of a Demographic Transition," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 5(1), pages 92-134, Winter.
    14. Harding, Don & Pagan, Adrian, 2006. "Synchronization of cycles," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 132(1), pages 59-79, May.
    15. Beetsma, Roel & Bettendorf, Leon & Broer, Peter, 2003. "The budgeting and economic consequences of ageing in the Netherlands," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 20(5), pages 987-1013, September.
    16. Dennis Fredriksen & Nils Martin Stølen, 2005. "Effects of demographic development, labour supply and pension reforms on the future pension burden," Discussion Papers 418, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
    17. Woodland, A., 2016. "Taxation, Pensions, and Demographic Change," Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, in: Piggott, John & Woodland, Alan (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 713-780, Elsevier.
    18. Masaya Sakuragawa & Kaoru Hosono, 2010. "Fiscal Sustainability Of Japan: A Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Approach," The Japanese Economic Review, Japanese Economic Association, vol. 61(4), pages 517-537, December.
    19. Kenc, Turalay & Sayan, Serdar, 2001. "Demographic shock transmission from large to small countries: An overlapping generations CGE analysis," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 23(6), pages 677-702, August.
    20. Christoph Freudenberg & Tamás Berki & Ádám Reiff, 2016. "A Long-Term Evaluation of Recent Hungarian Pension Reforms," MNB Working Papers 2016/2, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    aging population; pension scheme; pension debt; financial sustainability; Vietnam;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:969. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.