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Demographic Changes and Pension Finances in Vietnam

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  • Giang, Thanh Long
  • Pfau, Wade Donald

Abstract

This paper aims to provide a long-term financial vision for the Vietnamese pension scheme using stochastic modeling for key variables under an actuarial framework. In particular, we project the pension fund balances in order to see whether the scheme will be financially sustainable. The median values of the status-quo projections show that the pension fund will be depleted in about 2052 with a 90-percent confidence interval range of 8 years. The estimated results from our sensitivity tests show that the retirement age, the indexation method for pension benefits, and the contribution rate are all crucial determinants of the pension fund balance in the long term. At the same time, some factors, including coverage rates, administrative costs, the long-term fertility rate, and the rate of return on pension fund assets play less important roles in determining the fund’s balance.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 9931.

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Date of creation: 2008
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:9931

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Keywords: aging; stochastic projections; pension finances; Vietnam;

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  1. Holzmann, Robert & Mac Arthur, Ian W. & Sin, Yvonne, 2000. "Pension systems in East Asia and the Pacific : challenges and opportunities," Social Protection Discussion Papers 23088, The World Bank.
  2. Giang, Thanh Long, 2004. "The Pension Scheme in Vietnam: Current Status and Challenges in an Aging Society," MPRA Paper 969, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Pfau, Wade D., 2006. "Comparing the Impacts of Social Security Benefit Reductions on the Income Distribution of the Elderly," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association, vol. 59(2), pages 195-210, June.
  4. Thai-Thanh Dang & Pablo Antolín & Howard Oxley, 2001. "Fiscal Implications of Ageing: Projections of Age-Related Spending," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 305, OECD Publishing.
  5. Lee, Ronald D., 1993. "Modeling and forecasting the time series of US fertility: Age distribution, range, and ultimate level," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 187-202, August.
  6. Lee, Ronald & Tuljapurkar, Shripad, 1998. "Uncertain Demographic Futures and Social Security Finances," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(2), pages 237-41, May.
  7. Ronald Lee & Timothy Miller, 2001. "Evaluating the performance of the lee-carter method for forecasting mortality," Demography, Springer, vol. 38(4), pages 537-549, November.
  8. Giang, Thanh Long, 2005. "Pension Liabilities and Generational Relations: The Case of Vietnam," MPRA Paper 970, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Mar 2006.
  9. Robert P. Hagemann & Giuseppe Nicoletti, 1989. "Ageing Populations: Economic Effects and Implications for Public Finance," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 61, OECD Publishing.
  10. Pfau, Wade Donald, 2006. "Comparing the Impacts of Social Security Benefit Reductions on the Income Distribution of the Elderly," MPRA Paper 19033, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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