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Desempleo y Actividad Económica Regional: Un Enfoque Cíclico
[Unemployment and Regional Economic Activity: A Cyclical Approach]

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  • Acuña, Andrés

Abstract

This paper analyzes the cyclical behavior of production and unemployment at regional level, using Chilean quarterly data which spans between 1986:Q1 and 2005:Q4. Once the data set is characterized, it proceeds to modeling the cyclical performance of regional unemployment using auto regressive components (in the form of polynomial distributed lags), and related variables, such as commodities prices, e.g. fruit, copper, oil, salmon. The aim of this approach is to forecast the regional unemployment cyclical behavior for quarters 2006:Q1 and 2006:Q4. The results suggests a notorious unemployment reduction in regions II and V, and a slightly reduction in regions III, IV, X and XII. Moreover, unemployment's cycle will not leave its expansive phase in regions I, VI, XI and RM. Finally, the models predict a rise on unemployment in regions VII and IX, and it will maintain its previous level in region VIII.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 8275.

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Date of creation: Jan 2006
Date of revision: Mar 2006
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:8275

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Related research

Keywords: business cycle; unemployment; forecasting;

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  1. Rómulo A. Chumacero & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel, 2004. "General Equilibrium Models: An Overview," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 307, Central Bank of Chile.
  2. Gary Hansen, 2010. "Indivisible Labor and the Business Cycle," Levine's Working Paper Archive 233, David K. Levine.
  3. Carlos Oyarzún & Iván Araya, 2001. "Long run dynamics of regional growth in Chile," Estudios de Economia, University of Chile, Department of Economics, vol. 28(1 Year 20), pages 69-78, June.
  4. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1980. "Methods and Problems in Business Cycle Theory," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 12(4), pages 696-715, November.
  5. Helmut Franken & Guillermo Le Fort & Eric Parrado, 2005. "Business Cycle Dynamics and Shock Resilience in Chile," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 331, Central Bank of Chile.
  6. Cooley, T.F. & Hansen, G.D., 1988. "The Inflation Tax In A Real Business Cycle Model," Papers 88-05, Rochester, Business - General.
  7. V. V. Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe, 1998. "Optimal fiscal and monetary policy," Staff Report 251, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  8. Bernheim, B Douglas, 1991. "Optimal Fiscal and Monetary Policy: Some Recent Results," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 23(3), pages 540-42, August.
  9. Lucas, Robert E, Jr & Stokey, Nancy L, 1987. "Money and Interest in a Cash-in-Advance Economy," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(3), pages 491-513, May.
  10. Cooley, T.F. & Hansen, G.D., 1991. "Tax Distortions in a Neoclassical Monetary Economy," RCER Working Papers 265, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
  11. Mendoza, Enrique G, 1991. "Real Business Cycles in a Small Open Economy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(4), pages 797-818, September.
  12. Lucas, Robert Jr. & Stokey, Nancy L., 1983. "Optimal fiscal and monetary policy in an economy without capital," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 55-93.
  13. Roberto Duncan, 2002. "How Well Does a Monetary Dynamic Equilibrium Model Account for Chilean Data?," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 190, Central Bank of Chile.
  14. V.V. Chari & Lawrence J. Christiano & Patrick J. Kehoe, 1991. "Optimal fiscal and monetary policy: some recent results," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, pages 519-546.
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